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- WTI Brent Arb --November and December
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September 5, 2025
Overview
The November and December WTI Brent arbs have rebounded off the multi month lows seen 2 days ago. The momentum suggests that the WTI will continue to gain on the Brent for now.
In the November arb, the recent low of $4.11 provides support for the WTI versus the Brent. Upside resistance for WTI versus Brent lies first at $3.790. Better resistance lies at the $3.70 area.
In the December arb, support for WTI is likely at $4.03, which is 5 cents below Wednesday's low of $3.98. The $4.03 level is from data going back 8 to 9 months. Here the upside resistance for WTI versus Brent lies first at $3.71, with better resistance above that at the $3.60 area.
The weakening of the Brent is likely tied to the news that OPEC+ is considering raising output at their meeting this Sunday. That would suggest that more crude oil would be available for the Europeans to buy, thus putting some pressure on Brent crude pricing, more so than WTI.
Additionally, seasonal refinery maintenance may see European crude oil demand fall, more so than in the U.S. Seasonal maintenance in Europe typically reduces intra-Europe product supply in Q4. Last year, autumn refinery maintenance in Europe peaked in October at approximately 2 MMBPD of Crude Distillation Unit capacity going offline. The 2025 total is still unclear, but planned works in the ARA region during Q4 (Shelll's Pernis refinery in Holland (404kbd) and Antwerp (340kbd), as per Argus Media data) already suggest some increased dependence on seaborne product supplies from the Mideast and India. (Vortexa.com) By comparison, last year from August 28 to November 20, U.S. refiners reduced crude inputs to refineries by 636 MBPD.
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