Special Report: November and December WTI Brent arb

Overview

Amplifying on what our colleague Mark Schaefer wrote yesterday regarding the January WTI Brent arb, we see a similar setup in the November and December WTI Brent arb charts.

The strong U.S. crude export figure seen in yesterday's DOE data is supportive for the arb narrowing, thus favoring the WTI. Additionally, news seen today regarding European crude imports is supportive for the arb shrinking even as Russian crude shipments have shrunk. Observed crude oil shipments into Europe from the U.S. Gulf for September are set to rise to a seven-month high of about 1.89 MMBPD, Bloomberg reports.

We would also offer the opinion that the output increase expected from OPEC+ in October should allay some of the Europeans' fear over supply that might be reduced due to sanctions against Russia, even as Europe has weaned itself off Russian supply in recent years. Russia's share of EU petroleum oil imports dropped from 29% in the first quarter of 2021 to just 2% in the second quarter of 2025. To replace Russian oil, the EU has increased imports from other countries, including the United States and Norway.

Technically, the arb has positive momentum signaling that WTI should gain on Brent. The arb is well off the lows seen 4 days ago. Three and four days ago, the arb had a mean reversion setup, having settled below the lower bollinger band. The closes since then have seen the arb rise back above the lower bollinger band, confirming the reversion and thus setting the stage for the recovery for the WTI seen the past 24 to 48 hours.
In the November arb we see upside resistance for the WTI versus the Brent at $-4.10 and then at $-3.92. Support for the WTI versus Brent is seen at $-4.44 and then at the recent low at $-4.61 in the case of the November arb.
In the December arb, there is a more pronounced look of a stepladder up pattern for the WTI gaining in recent sessions versus the Brent. Here the WTI has resistance versus the Brent up at $-3.930 and then at $-3.810. Support for the WTI versus Brent to the downside lies at $-4.28 and then at the recent low at $-4.41.

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