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- October HOGO --Heating Oil vs Gasoil
August 26,2025
Overview
The October HOGO is very close to testing support at the 14.25-14.30 cent area. Currently, the October HOGO is valued at 14.55-14.60 cents. Negative momentum suggests that it will test support below. Below that the next best support is seen at the 12. 00-12.10 cent area. The daily chart's lower bollinger band intersects at the 14.1 cents area, which may provide some temporary support for the HO/ULSD. Upside resistance for the HO lies at 16.5 and then 18.3 cents.
The HOGO may be under pressure due to a few things happening currently fundamentally in the physical markets. Firstly, some of the upside support/pressure for HO/ULSD has likely eased with the news of the return of the BP Whiting refinery. On the other hand, the news lately has emphasized the great number of attacks by Ukraine in Russian oil infrastructure, which supports the Gasoil to some extent.
Ukrainian drones have struck at least ten key Russian energy facilities this month alone, according to a CNN tally of attacks. The refineries struck account for more than 44 million tons of products annually – more than 10% of Russia’s capacity - according to Ukraine’s intelligence service. Among the targets - the giant Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia.
BP plc’s BP operations at the Whiting refinery in Indiana are steadily resuming after severe thunderstorms and flooding sent parts of the facility offline last week. The refinery supplies critical volumes of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to the Midwest region.
The benchmark diesel price in the U.S. used for most fuel surcharges continued its downward drift this week, with the number declining for the fifth consecutive week, as per EIA data seen Tuesday. The 5 week decline totals 10.4 cents.
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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