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- NG March April 2026 Spread
January 12,2026
Overview
The March 2026 NG has fallen in value below that of the April 2026 to a fresh low for the contract on Friday at minus 5.0 cents. This is not surprising given the fall in the underlying flat price to its lowest level since late October 2025. The market has pressured the current nearby March April spread into negative territory given the prospects for ample supplies in storage end of the withdrawal season.
The past 5 years history for this spread has seen the market trade into negative values, with the prior 4 years seeing the low for the spread near expiration, falling as low as -16.7/-18.7 cents in 2023 and 2024 respectively. But, in 2021 and 2025 the spread basically held at lows near minus 4.0 cents.
The current 2026 March April spread has negative momentum, suggesting values could fall a little bit further. But, the spread has a mean reversion setup from Friday's settlement below the daily chart's lower bollinger band and again today has tested the lower bollinger band, which currently intersects at minus 3.1 cents. The testing of the lower bollinger band cautions against sellers being too aggressive at these levels. The historical evidence of the area near minus 4.0 cents having provided support in earlier years also gives us pause for being very bearish for the current spread. Rallies for the flat price will likely give some boost to the March versus April. Upside resistance for the current March April 2026 spread we see lies at plus 1.1 and then at plus 3.3 cents.
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