Natural Gas Oct Nov Dec 2026 Butterfly

Overview

The October November December NG butterfly is at its widest value for this contract. We believe that the butterfly is acting bullishly for 2 reasons.
1) the October gaining on November due to the bullish nature of what has been seen in the expired February contract and how that was very wide versus the rest of the curve. Also the current view for storage has many having reduced their forecasts for end of injection season in the fall (October).
2) we believe that the market has recalibrated its valuations of next winter's NG pricing given what February did and the storage expectations ---December is likely more attractive than November
Thus the fly has widened as we believe that both wings (October & December) are seen as more attractive than the body (November). On a pullback we see support for the wings at the 30 cent area and then near 26 cents --basis data from the 60 minute chart for the October November December butterfly.

Technically there are 2 indicators we use that are cautionary signals for those bullish on the fly widening further in the near term. The stochastic momentum indicator is showing an overbought condition and the fly is above the daily chart's upper bollinger band. In the past 3 years the butterfly widened late in its life--with 2023 and 2024 showing values as high as 26.7 and 27.4 cents at expiration. The 2025 butterfly widened as far as 36.5 cents late in its life. (Past 3 years charts attached below)

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