HO November December Spread (Mark's Quick call)

Overview

Snapback Rally & Technical Context

• Yesterday (Oct 7) saw a strong rebound, with price closing cleanly above both the 200-day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band.

• As noted previously, Monday (Oct 6) marked the first close below the 200-day MA since May — a significant breach.

• Momentum remains extremely oversold, but has now crossed upward, indicating a potential shift to bullish momentum and room for further upside.

Resistance Levels to Watch

• The first major resistance zone is around 2.0, where several key technical levels converge:

• 20-day MA (mid Bollinger Band)

• 50-day MA

• 100-day MA

• A break above 2.0 opens the door to the next major resistance at 3.0, which aligns with:

• The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

• The Upper Bollinger Band

Scenarios & Market Dynamics

• The speed of this corrective rally will likely dictate how far it extends:

• Fast move to 2.0 increases the probability of a push toward 3.0.

• Stalling between 1.11 (200-day MA) and 1.92 (100-day MA) increases the risk of fading and retesting lower levels.

• Notably, the 50-day MA recently crossed below the 100-day MA — a bearish crossover.

• The last time this happened (June), price rallied sharply to the July high of 6.55, showing potential for countertrend moves.

Key Risk & Bearish Setup

• While short-term momentum favors a bounce, the longer price lingers between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, the greater the probability that we eventually break below the Oct 6 low of 0.80.

• This suggests a make-or-break zone — either build momentum higher soon, or risk further downside once the oversold conditions are fully worked off.

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