Heating Oil (HOZ26F27) Update October 19, 2026

The spread has been consolidating for the past three weeks, with volatility falling to a one-month low. In the short term, the 20-day moving average (0.1000) crossed below the 50-day moving average (0.1179) early last week and is approaching the 100-day moving average, suggesting near-term weakness. However, the broader trend remains constructive, with the 50-day moving average at 0.1179 above the 100-day at 0.0929, and the 100-day above the 200-day at 0.0632. All three longer-term averages continue to trend higher, indicating that the broader bullish structure remains intact despite the recent consolidation.

Momentum has been moving sideways in neutral territory, offering little directional bias. With volatility compressed and momentum providing no clear signal, the spread may remain range-bound until price breaks out of the current consolidation.

Key Levels

Resistance

• 0.1002 – 20-day moving average

• 0.1179 – 50-day moving average

• 0.1314 – Upper Bollinger Band

Support

• 0.0930 – 100-day moving average

• 0.0690 – Lower Bollinger Band

• 0.0632 – 200-day moving average

Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn

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