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- Daily Energy Market Update September 9, 2026
Crude is pressing higher this morning as the latest escalation between the U.S. and Iran adds further risk to an already disrupted physical market. The U.S. military said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after attempted Iranian attacks on a U.S. Navy warship. Iran subsequently claimed attacks on U.S. military assets and commercial vessels, although those claims have not been independently confirmed. Brent has moved back above $100, while U.S. crude is trading in the mid-$90s.
The bigger story for physical traders remains shipping. Preliminary Kpler data showed six commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, below the 10-day average of about 12. That figure excludes vessels with their AIS transponders switched off, so it should not be viewed as total traffic. The key takeaway is that visible commercial traffic remains limited, while uncertainty around actual flows remains high.
The disruption is also extending beyond Hormuz. Iran-backed Houthi forces have carried out attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, adding another layer of risk to regional crude and product logistics. With Hormuz already constrained, any further disruption to alternative shipping routes would add pressure to an already stressed physical market.
For products, this is particularly important. Refined fuels have been under more pressure than crude, and further disruption to Gulf or Red Sea logistics could put additional pressure on diesel and other middle distillates. The question is whether physical conditions continue to tighten enough to support higher prices, or whether shipping visibility begins to improve.
For traders, the focus today is less on the $100 headline and more on the barrels. I’m watching Hormuz traffic, tanker movements, product cracks and any evidence that the latest escalation is translating into additional physical supply losses.
Crude (CL1)
Crude continues to press higher toward $100, coming into the U.S. open up 2.05 at $95.08 at 7:00 a.m. The market continues to make higher highs and higher lows, with price trading at its highest level in roughly three months. The focus now turns to the $98.30 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, followed by the key psychological $100 level.
Momentum remains overbought but is still pointing higher. That said, technical signals are likely to carry less weight while geopolitical tensions remain elevated and continue to drive the market.
Key Levels
Resistance
$97.00 — June 3 high
$98.30 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
$100.00 — Key psychological level
Support
$94.53 — Upper Bollinger Band
$86.71 — 100-day moving average
$86.57 — 20-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Heating oil gapped higher overnight and is coming into the U.S. open at 4.7298, just off the overnight high of 4.7470. Price remains below last week's bearish reversal-bar high, keeping that setup intact for now. A move above 4.7661 would negate the bearish reversal setup.
Momentum remains overbought but is still pointing higher. The bearish divergence, combined with last week's bearish reversal, suggests the move is stretched. However, with geopolitical tensions continuing to escalate and energy prices pushing higher, the key question is whether heating oil can continue to press higher despite the overbought technical picture.
For now, the market is holding above the key support levels, while the overnight high and last week's reversal-bar high remain the levels to watch on the upside. A break above 4.7661 would shift the technical picture and invalidate the bearish reversal setup.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.7589 — Upper Bollinger Band
4.7661 — Last week's reversal-bar high
Support
4.4338 — Friday low / pivot level
4.3637 — 20-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is up 1.51 overnight at 16.95. It gapped higher on the open and has made both another higher high and a higher low. Price is holding close to the overnight high of 17.09, with little retracement so far.
Momentum is pressing above the highs from late August and continues to point higher, reinforcing the strength of the current move.
Key Levels
Resistance
17.09 — Overnight high
Support
16.42 — Upper Bollinger Band
12.06 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (August low to overnight high)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Natural gas had a large bearish reversal day yesterday, trading above Friday’s high before reversing sharply and trading below Friday’s low. Price also moved below the 50-day moving average, which has acted as support over the past several sessions, although the market ultimately closed back above it at 2.886.
Natural gas is coming into the U.S. open near its overnight low at 2.858, down 0.057 at 7:50 a.m. The 20-day moving average is currently providing support, although it has not been tested in more than two weeks.
Momentum has crossed over and is now pointing lower from overbought territory. This suggests the market could test lower levels before momentum normalizes toward lower or neutral territory.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.886 — 50-day moving average / key near-term pivot
2.990 — Upper Bollinger Band
3.026 — Last week's reversal-bar high
Support
2.858 — 20-day moving average / current support
2.747 — August 25 low
2.726 — Lower Bollinger Band
Nat Gas (NGV26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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