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- Daily Energy Market Update September 8, 2026
Oil is back in focus after the Labor Day long weekend, with Brent pushing toward $100 as Middle East supply risks remain elevated. The market has returned with a firmer physical tone, with the Brent curve showing pronounced backwardation. The key question now is whether the geopolitical premium develops into sustained physical tightness.
Hormuz remains the main crude risk. Shipping through the Strait remains well below normal, with significant volumes still moving but continued uncertainty around the reliability of those flows. The issue for traders is less whether the waterway is technically open and more whether barrels can move consistently enough to support normal Gulf exports. Any further deterioration in vessel traffic would likely add another layer of support to the front of the curve.
Products remain particularly tight. Limited refining flexibility, Russian export restrictions and low inventories continue to support the product complex, with refined fuels showing significant strength relative to crude. That is an important signal for the physical market: the stress is not confined to the crude barrel.
Saudi Arabia’s latest Houthi attacks add another layer of uncertainty, with energy facilities in the south affected and operations at some sites halted. The extent of any lasting supply impact is still being assessed, but the attacks reinforce concerns around both regional infrastructure and shipping routes.
China remains an important demand watchpoint into year-end. Recent imports have improved from the previous month but remain weaker than last year, while the market is looking for a seasonal pickup in demand. A recovery in Chinese buying alongside continued Middle East disruption would make the current physical balance tighter.
Bottom line: Brent is back near $100, but the more important signals are the tightening curve, strong products and continued uncertainty around regional flows. Watch $100 Brent, the front spreads, gasoil cracks and actual shipping activity through Hormuz. The physical market remains the story.
Crude (CL1)
Crude opened higher after the weekend and remains bid heading into the U.S. open following the long weekend. Today marks the fifth consecutive day with crude pressing against the upper Bollinger Band, highlighting the continued strength in the move. Aside from Friday, when price stalled and closed relatively unchanged, crude has now posted eight consecutive days of higher lows as it continues to push toward $100.
Momentum also continues to point to strength, with the market remaining overbought but still trending higher. While the move is becoming increasingly stretched, price action has yet to show a meaningful reversal, keeping the near-term bias firmly higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
98.30 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (April high to July low)
100.00 – Key psychological level
Support
93.30 – Upper Bollinger Band
88.72 – Friday’s low
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Heating oil traded higher overnight but has since given back roughly half of the move, opening the U.S. morning around 4.6527. Overnight price action pushed just above the upper Bollinger Band, reaching 4.7198, but fell short of testing Wednesday’s reversal-bar high at 4.7661.
The key thing to watch from here is whether last week’s bearish technical confluence begins to play out. The bearish reversal (a new high followed by a lower close) combined with the bearish divergence (a new price high but a lower momentum high) continue to suggest the potential for near-term weakness. Price action has not fully confirmed the setup yet, but the technical warning remains in place.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.7206 – Upper Bollinger Band
4.7661 – Wednesday’s reversal-bar high
Support
4.4338 – Friday’s low
4.3382 – 20-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is higher overnight but has pulled back from its high of 16.30, currently trading +1.42 at 15.64. The overnight rally took out last week’s high and marks the seventh day out of the last eight that price has made a higher low, as well as the fifth consecutive day trading above the upper Bollinger Band — both highlighting the continued strength in the spread.
Momentum remains overbought but is still pointing higher, with no clear signs of a near-term retracement following the strong move higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
16.30 – Overnight high
Support
13.04 – Friday’s low
11.57 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (August low to overnight high)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Natural gas opened lower overnight but rallied back and is trading near unchanged heading into the U.S. open. The upper Bollinger Band has acted as strong resistance over the past two weeks, with price trading at or above the upper band on 10 of the last 11 trading days. Despite repeatedly testing the band, NG has yet to close above it. Above the upper Bollinger Band at 3.005, the 100-day moving average becomes the next important level to watch. NG has not traded above the 100-day since early March.
Momentum remains overbought and continues to point higher, although it is beginning to look stretched following the recent move. There are still no clear signs of a near-term reversal, keeping the near-term bias higher as long as price continues to hold above the 50-day moving average.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.026 – Last week’s high
3.050 – 100-day moving average
Support
2.894 – 50-day moving average
2.861 – 20-day moving average
Nat Gas (NGV26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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