Daily Energy Market Update September 8,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy prices are higher as OPEC+ decided to raise production by a lesser amount than seen in prior months. Also supporting prices today are concerns over further sanctions on Russian oil.

OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 137 MBPD in October. The output hike was modest after increases of about 555 MBPD for September and August and 411 MBPD in July and June. The lesser amount announced is seen as an acknowledgement of slowing demand, as per Reuters commentary. But, Rystad analysis says:" OPEC+ is prioritizing market share even if it risks softer prices."  OPEC+'s hikes have fallen short of the pledged amounts, because most members are pumping near capacity. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are seen able to add more barrels into the market. OPEC+'s next meeting will be on October 5th.

President Trump said on Sunday he is ready to move to a second phase of sanctioning Russia, the closest he has come to suggesting he is on the verge of ramping up sanctions against Moscow; but Trump stopped short of saying he was committed to such a decision or what a second phase might entail. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Sunday that the U.S. and the European Union could heap "secondary tariffs on the countries that buy Russian oil." (Reuters) Also seen over the weekend: the European Union is exploring new sanctions on Russian banks and energy companies. (ING) And this morning a headline was seen that the EU is considering sanctions against China for its Russian oil imports. (Financial Times)

Trade data released this morning from China for August showed a rebound in crude oil imports. Crude oil imports increased by 4.9% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year to 49.5 metric tons (about 11.65 MMBPD) last month, as both state-owned refineries and independent refineries continued to operate at high rates. (ING) Oil Price commentary adds that the aggressive crude stockpiling in China appears to continue.

CFTC data issued Friday showed money managers added net length in the energies in the week ended Tuesday September 2nd. WTI net length in futures/options rose by a modest 3,293 contracts on ICE/CME combined. The increase in WTI length comes after 4 weeks of reductions in net length, which took the money managers position to its lowest since January 2007. RB length rose by 7,961 contracts. ULSD net length rose by 5,940 contracts. In the cases of RB & ULSD the net length increases were mostly a function of new longs. ICE Brent length rose by 44,511 contracts, buoyed by fresh longs.

The Baker Hughes oil rig count seen Friday showed an increase of 2 units.

Goldman Sachs expects a slightly larger oil surplus next year due to higher output in the Americas, despite an upward revision in global demand. The U.S. bank now forecasts excess supply of 1.9 MMBPD in 2026--up from a previous estimate of 1.7 MMBPD--with growth mainly driven by Brazil, Canada and Guyana. Global oil demand is expected to grow by 900 MBPD next year. Goldman projects Brent crude and WTI prices to average $56 and $52 a barrel, respectively, in 2026. (WSJ)

Energy Market Technicals

Crude oil and RB are experiencing inside trading days today versus Friday's price ranges. The lows for the session for the energies were seen on the opening  Sunday night. Crude momentum remains negative, ULSD momentum is positive, while the negative momentum for RB looks to be waning.

WTI spot futures have support at 62.17-62.19 and then at Friday's low of 61.45. Resistance comes in at 64.34-64.42 and then at 65.10-65.11. The lower DC bollinger band was tested today and Friday. The band intersects at 62.20.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas- NG is up 8.6 cents
NG spot futures rose overnight to their best value in almost 6 weeks on the back of a hotter mid-September outlook, especially in the central U.S.

The NOAA 6-14 day charts show slightly above normal across much of the U.S.. Chicago will see temperatures that are 1 to 3 degrees above normal this week with highs in the low 80's. Texas will experience highs in the 90's during the period from Sept. 10 thru Sept. 19. Temperatures in San Antonio will be 3 to 5 degrees above normal, Houston's highs will be 1 to 4 degrees above normal and Dallas' highs will be 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

NG production so far in September is averaging 107.5 BCF/d, down from August's record production of 108.3 BCF/d. (tradingview.com)  U.S. domestic natural gas production is estimated today at 108.08 BCF/d, compared to the 30-day average of 109.02 BCF/d, according to Bloomberg data.

Money managers covered 7,393 contracts of their net short position, bringing the net total short to 36,950 contracts.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count seen Friday showed a decrease of 1 unit. The Permian basin saw a drop of 1 unit. The Permian basin has seen its rig count fall by 52 units over the past 52 weeks to a current total of 254.

Technically, NG has risen above the triple top that was seen end of last week at 3.130-3.131. Next resistance lies at 3.186-3.187. Support lies at 3.061-3.068. The overnight low is 3.056. Support below that comes in at the double bottom from Thursday/Friday at 3.021-3.022. Momentum is overbought with the indicator still showing a negative number.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC