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- Daily Energy Market Update September 4, 2026
Oil remains on track for a sharp weekly gain, with Brent holding around $95 and WTI near $91 as renewed US-Iran hostilities keep the market focused on the risk of prolonged disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is up roughly 6.5% on the week, while WTI has gained nearly 9%.
The latest escalation followed US strikes on Iran earlier this week and subsequent Iranian retaliation against US bases in the region. Israel also renewed warnings that it could target Iranian military, civilian and energy infrastructure if Tehran launches further attacks.
Attention remains firmly on Hormuz, where observed vessel traffic continues to run well below normal levels. Preliminary Kpler data showed just four commodity vessels transited the strait Thursday, down from nine Wednesday and a 10-day average of roughly 15. Only two VLCCs have reportedly crossed so far this week. The figures exclude vessels that may have crossed with AIS transponders switched off. Iran has also expanded the list of vessels it considers non-compliant and potentially subject to fines, detention or confiscation.
The geopolitical risk premium was partially offset Thursday by comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin indicating there may be a path toward negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The comments pressured crude on expectations that a reduction in attacks on Russian refineries could help normalize fuel supplies and production.
Despite the disruptions, some crude continues to move out of the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia also left the October price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asian buyers unchanged, contrary to expectations for an increase.
The impact is increasingly visible beyond crude. Asian spot LNG prices climbed to their highest level since December 2022 this week, while European diesel markets remain exceptionally tight and inventories are well below normal seasonal levels.
Crude (CL1)
Crude had a quiet overnight session, with an inside day heading into the session. Today marks the first day this week that crude has not made a higher high, while it is barely holding on to a higher low. A trade at 89.57 (CL1) would match yesterday’s low.
Momentum remains overbought and continues to point higher, but price action is beginning to tell a different story. The inability to extend the week’s highs, combined with the test of yesterday’s low, suggests crude may be starting to get tired after the recent move higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 91.73 – Upper Bollinger Band
- 93.14 – Yesterday’s high and the high for the week
Support
- 86.68 – 100-day moving average
- 85.39 – 20-day moving average
- 80.94 – 50-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Heating oil is lower in overnight trading, with the price action beginning to confirm the bearish divergence we have been highlighting over the past several sessions. After two consecutive closes above the upper Bollinger Band, prices moved back inside the bands yesterday and have seen additional downside follow-through overnight.
Momentum is still pointing higher, but the combination of bearish divergence and the developing reversal in price action is creating bearish technical confluence and highlighting the potential for further near-term weakness.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 4.6773 – Upper Bollinger Band
- 4.7661 – Wednesday’s bearish reversal bar high
Support
- 4.4400 – August 21 high and pivot
- 4.3053 – 20-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is trading in a narrow range overnight, forming an inside day heading into the session. Price is so far maintaining its bullish structure, with a higher low still intact, although it has yet to make a higher high. The spread also continues to trade near the upper Bollinger Band, which supports the underlying bullish tone.
Momentum continues to point higher, but the bearish divergence remains in place. While price has pushed to higher highs this week, momentum has failed to confirm those highs, creating a divergence between the bullish price action and the underlying momentum.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 14.45 – Upper Bollinger Band
- 15.10 – Yesterday’s high
Support
- 10.84 – August 21 high and pivot
- 10.08 – 20-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Natural gas is close to unchanged in overnight trading, trading at 2.922 as of 7:00 a.m. So far, we are not seeing any follow-through from yesterday’s bearish reversal. Price continues to hold above the key 50-day moving average at 2.897.
A move below the 50-day moving average, followed by a break of yesterday’s low at 2.885, would confirm the bearish reversal and open the door to softer natural gas prices over the next few sessions.
Momentum remains overbought and is still pointing higher, although it appears to be starting to roll over to the downside. For now, the 2.897–2.885 area is the key support zone to watch for confirmation of the reversal.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 2.972 – Upper Bollinger Band
- 3.026 – Yesterday’s reversal bar high
Support
- 2.897 – 50-day moving average
- 2.885 – Yesterday’s reversal bar low
- 2.850 – 20-day moving average
Natural Gas (NGV26)
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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