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- Daily Energy Market Update September 30, 2026
Crude oil prices steadied overnight following Tuesday's sharp decline as signs of recovering Middle East supply helped offset continued geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest indications suggest the physical supply situation has improved significantly. JPMorgan estimates the 10-day average of Middle East crude exports has recovered to 17.5 million barrels per day, or approximately 98% of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia has also restored flows through its East-West pipeline to at least 3.5 million barrels per day, providing an alternative route that reduces reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude is also continuing to move through Hormuz despite the ongoing risks to shipping, while Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including so-called dark flows, have recovered to approximately 23.3 million barrels per day. Goldman estimates the global oil market was roughly balanced in September.
The improving supply picture has taken some pressure off prices, but the geopolitical risk premium remains significant. The market continues to monitor U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts, the possibility of renewed tensions around Hormuz, and uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. restrictions on diesel exports.
In the U.S., API data reportedly showed crude inventories increasing by approximately 1.0 million barrels last week, with Cushing inventories rising by 233,000 barrels. The official EIA inventory report is due at 10:30 a.m. ET today and will be the next major catalyst for the market.
Crude (CL1)
Crude has again found support around the 88.60 area. Today marks the fifth time this month the level has been tested and held. The 50-day moving average is now holding just below support at 88.41.
Momentum remains oversold and continues to point lower, but price has yet to follow. The broader technical structure also remains constructive, with the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages positively stacked. We’re watching to see whether price ultimately follows momentum lower or momentum reverses as support continues to hold. The next leg may require a fresh headline or data catalyst today. Absent that, crude could remain range bound.
Key Levels
Resistance
95.83 — 20-day moving average
96.78 — Last week’s high
97.73 — 50% Fibonacci (September 15 high to overnight low)
Support
88.60 — Multiple bottoms/support
88.40 — 50-day moving average
86.50–86.90 — 50% Fibonacci and 100-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil has reversed the selloff of the last few days, opening higher overnight and trading higher throughout the session heading into the U.S. open. Price is now trading above the previous three days’ highs and has moved back above the key 20-day moving average at 4.6782.
Momentum has followed price higher, crossing up from oversold territory and continuing to point higher. With momentum turning higher and the moving averages positively stacked, with the 50-day above the 100-day and the 100-day above the 200-day, the near-term technical bias favors a move higher from here.
A move back below yesterday’s low, followed by a close below that level, would weaken the bullish structure in the near term.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.7119 — 50% Fibonacci (September 15 high to yesterday’s low)
4.7917 — 61.8% Fibonacci
4.9615 — Last week’s high
Support
4.6782 — 20-day moving average
4.3740 — Double bottom
4.3258 — Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread closed below the 50-day moving average yesterday for the first time since early August. Overnight, price made a new low for the move from the September 15 high before finding support at the 100-day moving average and bouncing, creating the beginning of a potential daily bullish reversal bar.
A close above 11.67 would strengthen the reversal signal, while a close above 12.14 would provide further confirmation of the bullish reversal.
Momentum is starting to turn higher from oversold territory but has not yet fully crossed.
Key Levels
Resistance
16.28 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 15 high to overnight low)
16.94 — 20-day moving average
17.70 — 50% Fibonacci
Support
11.68 — 50-day moving average
10.85 — Lower Bollinger Band
8.78 — 100-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Natural gas is coming into the U.S. open mostly unchanged, with a very narrow overnight range. Yesterday’s selloff pushed price through three key technical support levels: the last Fibonacci level at 3.090, the 20-day moving average at 3.070, and the 50-day moving average at 3.040.
Momentum has moved into neutral territory but continues to point lower. Natural gas would need to reclaim and close back above the 3.040 and 3.070 levels to regain the bullish momentum early last week. If price cannot reclaim these levels, natural gas could test the key support area around 2.900.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.040 — 50-day moving average
3.070 — 20-day moving average
3.205 — 100-day moving average
Support
3.000 — Yesterday’s low
2.976 — Last week’s low
2.902 — Double bottom
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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