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- Daily Energy Market Update September 29, 2026
Crude oil prices pulled back from overnight highs Tuesday as the market weighs renewed diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran against continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. and Iranian officials held separate discussions through mediators as efforts continue to reach an agreement that could lead to the reopening of the key shipping route and a resumption of broader nuclear negotiations.
Reports that the Trump administration may be open to sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds helped raise hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. Trump, however, has denied offering Iran such concessions, leaving the outlook for an agreement uncertain.
Meanwhile, Middle East oil flows continue to recover from earlier disruptions, providing some relief to the supply outlook. The market remains focused on whether diplomatic progress can reduce the risk premium surrounding Hormuz, while any renewed tensions could quickly put upward pressure on crude prices.
U.S. inventory data will provide another near-term focus for the oil market..
Crude (CL1)
Crude has backed off yesterday’s high and is currently trading within yesterday’s range. The market appears to be at an inflection point, with price holding above its key 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. Traders are waiting for the next catalyst to provide direction.
Momentum remains in oversold territory but has crossed lower after crossing higher a few days ago. With momentum still at relatively low levels, there may be room for crude to press higher as momentum moves back toward neutral.
With crude holding above its key moving averages and momentum remaining oversold, the technical bias favors a move higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
95.65 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 15 high to September 22 low)
95.99 — 20-day moving average
97.77 — 50% Fibonacci
Support
88.67 — Double bottom from last week
88.36 — 50-day moving average
86.60 — Confluence of 100-day moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil is under pressure heading into the U.S. open, with price currently trading below yesterday’s low at 4.4231 (7:15am). The market is approaching key support at 4.2945, which is the lower Bollinger Band, followed by the 50-day moving average at 4.2173.
Momentum is pointing lower and moving into oversold territory. However, with price still trading above the key 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, the bullish price structure that has been in place since mid-July remains intact.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.6352 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 15 high to last week’s low)
4.6633 — 20-day moving average
4.7144 — 50% Fibonacci
Support
4.3789 — Last week’s low
4.2945 — Lower Bollinger Band
4.2173 — 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is also lower heading into the U.S. open, currently trading into the previous support zone around 13.50, which held on three separate attempts over the past week. A clean break below this zone would open the door for a test of the 11.00–11.50 area, where the 50-day moving average and lower Bollinger Band come into play.
Momentum has moved into oversold territory, which could increase the potential for a bounce if we see a break lower toward the 11.50 support area.
Key Levels
Resistance
17.39 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 15 high to last week’s low)
18.60 — Last Thursday’s high and 50% Fibonacci
19.81 — 61.8% Fibonacci
Support
11.60 — 50-day moving average
11.17 — Lower Bollinger Band
8.73 — 100-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Natural gas is lower overnight, trading around 3.107 heading into the U.S. open. This morning’s low, as well as yesterday’s low, held just above the 20-day moving average, which currently comes in at 3.0760. Today marks the second day with price action contained below the key 100-day moving average at 3.210, which natural gas broke above last week but has since moved back below.
Momentum has moved out of overbought territory but is still pointing lower. If price cannot reclaim the 100-day moving average, natural gas could test the 2.900 support area, which has held on multiple attempts over the past several weeks.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.210 — 100-day moving average
3.263 — Upper Bollinger Band
3.395 — Last week’s high
Support
3.076 — 20-day moving average (overnight and yesterday’s low)
3.043 — 50-day moving average
2.900 — Key support with multiple attempts
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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