- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update September 28, 2026
Oil is trading higher this morning as the market rebuilds a geopolitical risk premium after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal. The decision has reduced expectations for a quick resolution to the conflict and a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping traders focused on the risk of further disruption.
The move higher comes despite improving physical flows from the Middle East. Regional exports have recovered as Saudi Arabia and the UAE increase shipments, while traffic through Hormuz has also improved. However, the market remains cautious about treating that recovery as permanent while the broader conflict remains unresolved.
For traders, the key issue is now the durability of the supply recovery versus the risk of renewed disruption. Further U.S.-Iran discussions are expected this week, making diplomatic headlines an important near-term driver. Any sign of progress could pressure the geopolitical premium, while renewed tensions would likely keep upside risks elevated.
Refined products remain another area of concern. Diesel markets are particularly tight, while discussion around possible U.S. export restrictions is adding further uncertainty to global product supply. This means the market is dealing with both geopolitical risk in crude and continued stress in refined products.
The focus today is therefore less on the improving export data and more on whether diplomacy can produce a credible path toward sustained normalization of shipping through Hormuz. Until there is clearer evidence of that, oil is likely to remain highly sensitive to headlines from Washington, Tehran and the Gulf.
Crude (CL1)
Despite the pullback in crude on Friday, price held the weekly double bottom at 88.67, as well as Thursday’s low, maintaining the bullish price structure. The overnight bounce pushed price back above the 20-day moving average, which currently comes in at 95.84.
Momentum has crossed back up from oversold territory, suggesting there may be further room for the move to extend higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 97.78 — 50% Fibonacci (September 15 high to last week’s low)
- 99.90 — 61.8% Fibonacci
- 106.75 — September 15 high
Support
- 95.85 — 20-day moving average
- 88.67 — Weekly double bottom
- 88.23 — 50-day moving average
Crude (Cont Contract)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil made a new two-week low on Friday before recovering to close above the weekly low. Price maintained its bullish structure, holding above the key moving averages. The moving-average setup also continues to support the strength of the broader trend, with the 50-day MA above the 100-day MA and the 100-day MA above the 200-day MA.
Stochastic momentum pulled back toward neutral territory at the end of last week, suggesting there is currently no clear directional bias from momentum.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 4.7134 — 50% Fibonacci (September 16 high to Friday’s low)
- 4.7927 — 61.8% Fibonacci
- 5.0499 — September 15 high
Support
- 4.3789 — Last week’s low
- 4.2737 — 50-day moving average
- 4.2052 — Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOX26)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread gapped higher on the overnight open and, after a small pullback, is now trading back above Friday’s high at 17.38 as of 7:15 a.m. Despite Friday’s pullback, the spread maintained its bullish price structure, holding above the double bottom at 13.47 from earlier in the week.
Momentum crossed higher near the Stochastic oversold area, adding to the bullish undertone and suggesting the move may have further room to extend.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 17.39 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 15 high to last week’s low)
- 18.60 — Confluence of last week’s high and 50% Fibonacci
- 19.80 — 61.8% Fibonacci
Support
- 14.10 Friday's low
- 13.47 Double bottom last week
- 11.51 50 day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Nat Gas gapped lower overnight, opening at 3.148 after closing at 3.251 on Friday. The move took price back below the 100-day moving average at 3.213 after closing above it on Thursday and Friday for the first time since early 2026. This level should continue to act as an important pivot for natural gas.
Friday marked the fourth consecutive day that price closed above the upper Bollinger Band, making today’s move more significant if we see a close back inside the bands and below the 100-day moving average. A close below both would suggest the recent rally is losing momentum.
Momentum crossed lower from overbought territory following the two-day selloff, suggesting there could be further weakness before momentum reaches neutral territory.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 3.213 — 100-day moving average
- 3.259 — Upper Bollinger Band
- 3.395 — Thursday’s high
Support
- 3.073 — 20-day moving average
- 3.042 — 50-day moving average
- 2.976 — Last Monday’s low (low before the strong rally)
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply