Daily Energy Market Update September 26,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are mixed with November RB up, WTI near unchanged, but ULSD down. The ULSD is giving up some of the large gains seen the past few sessions on the back of worries over supply with Russian now banning some diesel exports until the end of the year. Overall crude is up on the week as the EU & the U.S. have increased pressure on Russia with possible sanctions. The weekly gain for crude oil is more than 4%, which is the biggest gain in over 3 months, as per Reuters reporting.

European diplomats have privately warned the Kremlin that NATO is ready to respond to further violations of its airspace with full force, including by shooting down Russian planes, officials told Bloomberg. This news from Thursday caused a small rally for crude prices.

Exports from the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan will resume on Saturday, September 27, which is expected to add about 230 MBPD of oil to the international market. (Oil Price)

There are suggestions that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal and Transneft PJSC’s Sheskharis facility, two key oil ports on Russia’s Black Sea coast, resumed the loading of tankers overnight after Ukrainian aerial and marine drone attacks disrupted operations earlier in the week. These two ports export well over 2 MMBPD of Russian and Kazakh oil into the global markets. (ING)

U.S. 2nd quarter GDP data seen early Thursday was a double edged sword. The revised figure of +3.8%, up from the prior estimate of +3.3%, was seen as supportive given its strength, but that also was viewed somewhat negatively as it suggests that the Federal Reserve may not lower rates going forward, as has been expected. The 2nd quarter revision was aided by better consumer spending and lower imports.  (AP)

OPEC+ has delivered about three quarters of the extra oil output it targeted since the group started production hikes in April, and the level may fall closer to half later in the year as producers hit capacity limits, sources and analysts said and data showed. Between April and August, OPEC+ pumped almost 500 MBPD below its targeted increase of 1.92 MMBPD for that period, thus delivering only 75% of its agreed production increase. Data beyond August is not yet available. The IEA put OPEC+ spare capacity at 4.1 MMBPD as of August. But almost all of that is held by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  OPEC+ members Algeria, Kazakhstan, Oman and Russia are already producing near capacity, as per Kpler analysis. A Kpler analyst adds : " The group is able to increase real production only by 0.7-0.8 MMBPD if it decides to fully unwind the second layer of cuts of 1.65 MMBPD. "  RBC Capital says that of the proposed increase of 137 MBPD in OPEC+ production, the group will only be able to deliver 70 MBPD. (Reuters)

Indian representatives have told the Trump administration that significant cuts in Russian oil imports would require access to alternative crude from sanctioned nations like Iran and Venezuela. (Times of India)

This week saw news that Indian oil refiners are increasing gasoline and diesel exports to their highest levels in several years, driven by expanded crude processing capacity and increased domestic ethanol blending that has freed up fuel supplies for overseas markets, traders and analysts said.  This year, India's crude processing is expected to increase by 130 to 160 MBPD to about 5.51 MMBPD, with gasoline exports hitting a record high of around 400 MBPD, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Gasoline exports are up as India has increased ethanol blending in making gasoline. India’s gasoil exports are also expected to hit a four-year high this year, with most volumes heading to Europe to meet winter heating demand, analysts said.  Wood Mackenzie expects India's 2025 gasoil exports to reach 610-630 MBPD while Kpler's forecast is at 560 MBPD.  (Reuters)

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum is positive for the energies.

Many technical analysts point to resistance at 66.03 for spot WTI futures as being crucial. Support for spot WTI futures is seen at 63.25-63.33.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--November NG is down 1.0 cents at $3.185
November NG futures are down slightly with weather demand being slack, even as gas production has dipped, while the feed gas volume for LNG export has risen of late.

One weather forecaster says: "over the next 15 days, we are looking at "light to very light temperature-driven demand ". 

U.S. domestic natural gas production is estimated today at 107.71 BCF/d compared to the 30-day average of 108.23 BCF/d, according to BNEF.

Thursday's rally was boosted by strong LNG feedgas volumes, as well as some buying likely due to the October contract's options expiration, and also due to a stronger cash price. The next day Henry Hub cash price rose to $2.91 to $2.94. This was up 6 to 9 cents roughly versus Wednesday's price. This helped October futures advance as cash and futures are expected to converge as the futures goes to expiration.

The EIA gas storage data seen Thursday showed a build of 75 BCF, which was in line with forecasts. Total storage rose to 3.508 BCF. This flipped the inventories to a surplus versus last year's level. Storage was thus 22 BCF (+0.63%) over year ago level. Storage was +203 BCF / +6.14% versus the 5 year average.

One note seen regarding the strong feed gas volume for export seen Thursday was :" Were the Cove Point LNG plant not down for annual maintenance, flows would have been above 16.8 BCF/d, within 0.5 BCF/d of record highs."" The volume seen Thursday was 16.12 BCF/d, as per the Market News estimate.

On Thursday, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 105.6 BCF/d this week to 102.7 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up a total of 1.8 BCF/d versus those seen Wednesday.

Today is the last trading day for the October NG futures.

Technically, the November NG futures have positive momentum. For now, though, the NG futures are having an inside trading day versus yesterday's price range. Resistance for the November futures comes in at 3.258-3.261, which is yesterday's high. Above that resistance lies at 3.305-3.306. Support comes in at 3.170-3.175 and then at 3.093-3.096.

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