Daily Energy Market Update September 25,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil prices are lower, backing off from the 7 week high seen yesterday. The pullback in crude prices today is seen due to the return of Kurdish supply from Iraq, U.S. equities receding and some profit taking. But, ULSD & Gasoil have risen today to their best values since late July as the Russian Deputy PM said they would ban diesel exports until the end of the year.

Diesel cracks have rallied today on Russian Deputy PM Novak’s comments that Russia will ban diesel exports for non-producers until the end of the year. A report on Tuesday by Interfax, the Russian news agency, suggested the government was considering a diesel export ban. If adopted, a diesel ban would target companies that buy the fuel inside Russia and then ship it abroad. A prohibition limited to those resellers would have less impact on global fuel markets than a full halt, since most of Russia’s diesel cargoes come directly from fuel makers. The Russian government also plans to extend the gasoline export ban to the end of the year, in line with expectations. Russia remains one of the world’s most important suppliers of diesel, as per Bloomberg commentary. One investment officer said :“The physical squeeze is small, the psychological squeeze is huge." (Market News)

In news related to Gasoil , investment funds hold the largest number of wagers on higher European diesel prices since February 2022, according to positioning data released Sept. 24. At the same time, there have been record volumes of options contracts traded betting on the diesel curve this month, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. data shows. Much of that volume has been concentrated in wagers on a stronger market. More than half of the calls traded in the past few of days were concentrated in strikes that would pay out if ICE Gasoil futures for October were between $700 and $750 a metric ton. While it’s not unusual for traders to make such bets, open interest for many options with strikes prices in this range more than doubled since early August. October Gasoil today has risen as high as $724.25. Call options on U.S. diesel futures also recently saw their busiest day of trading since 2018. (Bloomberg)

Ukraine attacks on Russian refineries and petrochemical plants continued this week. Russian refining runs recently dropped below 5 MMBPD, the lowest since April 2022, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts wrote in a note. That’s at least 7% lower than normal for the time of year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Recent attacks on Russian infrastructure include the Kirishi, Saratov, Volgograd, Novokuibyshevsk and Bashneft facilities.

Eight oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, representing over 90% of production, reached agreements in principle with Iraq's federal and Kurdish regional government (KRG) to resume oil exports, an industry umbrella group said on Wednesday. The agreement would bring back 230 MBPD of crude exports to flow through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which has been suspended since March 2023.  (Reuters)  Additionally, Iraq’s foreign minister said that talks have begun with Turkey for a new pipeline agreement, which would increase flows to 400-500 MBPD with new investment, according to Bloomberg.

Crude prices have retreated even as key oil ports, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal and the Sheskharis facility on Russia’s Black Sea coast, halted loading of tankers after overnight warnings of drone attacks, Bloomberg reports. 

Energies were supported Wednesday by a trade deal between the U.S. and the EU.  President Trump's administration said on Wednesday it was formally implementing the U.S. trade agreement with the European Union, confirming that a 15% duty rate for EU autos and auto parts began on August 1 and listing tariff exemptions for generic pharmaceuticals, aircraft and aircraft parts. (Reuters)

The DOE data seen Wednesday looks to be somewhat misleading in that crude supplies drew, despite a large increase in net crude oil imports. Distillate supplies fell more than expected as exports increased. Gasoline supplies fell in a little more than expected, but about the same amount as seen in the API data. Crude supplies fell by 0.607 MMBBL, even as net crude imports rose by 1.596 MMBPD, as exports fell by 793 MBPD and imports rose by 803 MBPD. The EIA's crude adjustment of -366 MBPD helped reduce some of the supply. Distillate supplies fell by 1.685 MMBBL versus the API build of 0.518 MMBBL, as exports rose by 705 MBPD. Distillate demand rose on the week by 117 MBPD to 3.738 MMBPD---but this still lags behind the prior 2 years' demand figures of 4.022 and 3.972  MMBPD. Gasoline supplies fell by 1.081 MMBBL, in line with the API draw of 1.05 MMBBL, and slightly better than the best draw estimate we saw of 0.737 MMBBL. Gasoline demand rose by 149 MBPD to 8.959 MMBPD---beating 2023 demand of 8.619 MMBPD, but lagging behind last year's demand of 9.205 MMBPD.  Jet Fuel stocks rose by 1.052 MMBBL, a 2.4% rise week-on-week. The build is an extension of last week’s 632 MBBL increase, driven largely by a drop-in demand supported by a fall in net exports. Additional increases in jet inventories were capped by a fall in production. Four-week average jet demand fell 3.41% to 1.645 MMBPD. Meanwhile, weekly demand was down by 7.64% to 1.499 MMBPD. (Market News)

The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank issued the results of a survey of oil executives on Wednesday. The survey said that Oil and gas production declined some in Q3 2025. Respondents expect a WTI oil price of $63/bbl  at year-end 2025. Respondents on average said they expect a WTI oil price of $69 per barrel two years from now and $77 per barrel five years from now. Firms reported rising costs. (dallasfed.org) One executive noted their company had cut its drilling schedule from 10 wells to five after Trump's announcement of "reciprocal" tariffs on many US trade partners in April, and was now suspending drilling indefinitely, according to Platts reporting.

The US wants to work with India to help it shift its oil purchases away from Russia, whether the supplies come from the U.S. or other oil producers, the U.S. Energy Secretary said Wednesday. He also urged Europe to speed up its plans to phase out Russian oil and gas. (Platts)

Retail gasoline prices at the pump have fallen to their lowest level since August 22. Today's national average, as per the AAA, is $3.157. One week ago, the average was $3.203.

CME data from Wednesday's activity shows WTI futures open interest rose by 22,130 contracts, even as the November contract's open interest fell by 6,699 contracts. Given the sharp up move in prices, we lean to this being more new length added rather than short positions.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum for the WTI basis the DC chart has turned positive with the rally of the past few sessions. RB momentum on the November daily chart remains negative.

The rally in the November ULSD has seen its momentum turn positive, but the contract bumped against the upper bollinger band on the daily chart. That band lies at 2.3914. The high seen today for the November ULSD is 2.3972. There is actually an intraday double top today at 2.3971-2.3972. Above this, the next resistance lies at 2.4135. Support comes in at 2.3367-2.3380 and then at 2.3173-2.3181.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--November NG is up 7.7 cents at $3.210
NG prices are higher today with LNG feedgas demand having picked up of late and a warmer weather forecast seen Wednesday, as per one commentary. The October options expiration today is possibly drawing some buying with some nearby out of the money strikes on the CME having sizable open interest. 

Feedgas deliveries to U.S. LNG facilities today are seen at 16.12 BCF/d, recovering from a low of 14.82 BCF/d on Monday September 22,  when flows to Sabine Pass dropped by about 0.4 BCF/d because of maintenance on the Creole Trail Pipeline, according to reporting from Kpler and Market News estimates

The EIA gas storage data due out today is seen as a build of 74 to 75 BCF as per new wire surveys. This compares to last year's build of 49 BCF and the 5 year average build of 76 BCF.

WSJ commentary from Wednesday cited the prospect for feedgas volume to rise over 16 BCF/d by year's end as being supportive. Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture owned by energy giants QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil, has secured approval from the U.S. DOE to export previously imported LNG from October 1, as it nears the launch of the first liquefaction train in Texas. Venture Global LNG’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana was on track to pull in a record 3.4 BCF/d of gas on Wednesday, according to LSEG data.

In the Dallas Fed survey issued Thursday,  respondents said that they expect a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.30/MMBtu at year-end 2025. The natural gas price is expected to rise to $3.35 in 6 months, to $3.53 in one year, to $3.94 in 2 years and in 5 years it is seen at $4.50, as per the survey. “We have begun the twilight of shale,” one executive was quoted as saying in the Dallas Fed report. “The U.S. isn’t running out of oil, but she sure is running out of $60 per barrel oil.”

The October NG / LN options expire today. The nearest call strikes with any sizable open interest on the CME are the $2.95 call with 11,031 contracts open at last night's close. The $3.00 call strike had 28,311 contracts open as of last night. On the put side, the $3.00 strike had 42,460 contracts open. Thus, combined the $3.00 strike has over 70,000 contracts open--making it a possible magnet for the settlement of the October futures today. The $2.90 put had 11,284 contracts open. The $2.75 put strike had 421,786 contracts open last night.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 104.7 BCF/d this week to 101.8 BCF/d next week.  The projection for this week of 104.7 BCF/d is up 0.9 BCF from last Thursday's demand estimate.

Resistance for the November NG futures comes in at 3.233-3.241 and then at 3.305-3.306. Support lies at 3.093-3.096. Momentum basis the daily November chart has turned positive.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC