Daily Energy Market Update September 23,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher as a supposed deal between the Iraqi government and Kurdish authorities to resume crude oil exports has stalled today. Better PMI data from Europe is also seen as supportive.

The deal between the Iraqi government and Kurdish authorities has stalled today, as per news wire accounts. Two oil producing firms asked for assurances their debts would be repaid, stalling the deal. (Reuters) Iraq's federal and Kurdish regional governments had supposedly reached a deal with oil firms to resume crude exports via Turkey on Monday, two oil officials told Reuters. The breakthrough would have allowed exports of about 230 MBPD, which have been suspended since March 2023, to resume from Iraqi Kurdistan. (LSEG)

Eurozone business activity grew at its fastest pace in 16 months in September, a survey showed Tuesday, raising hopes for increased growth in this important energy consuming region. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, edged up to 51.2 in September from 51.0 in August, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth.(investing.com) ING commentary adds :" Consensus sees the eurozone aggregate PMIs remaining above 50, reflecting a gradual growth recovery and supporting a drift higher in euro interest rates. Expectations are for the German manufacturing index to nudge from 49.8 to the 50 break-even level. The last time this level was hit was in 2022. And with the German fiscal impulse still ramping up, such numbers argue in favor of some careful optimism."

Federal Reserve officials on Monday cast doubt on the need for further rate cuts at a time when inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target and the job market remains near full employment. Two Federal Reserve Bank Presidents said that lowering inflation remains the priority.   (Reuters) The news is somewhat contrary to what the Fed had suggested might be 2 more rate cuts forthcoming by the end of this year. A halt in interest rate cuts would be slightly bearish for the energies, as business activity being aided would be put on hold.

The retail gasoline price at the pump in the U.S. has fallen today to its lowest national average since August 25. Today's price is $3.17, as per the AAA. One week ago, the price was $3.186. The gasoline national average price reached a recent high of $3.210 on August 28.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum remains negative for the energies.

WTI spot futures have support at the overnight low at 61.85 and then at the low of 61.45 seen almost 3 weeks ago when the October futures were the spot contract. The DC chart's lower bollinger band at 61.70 lies between those 2 support points. Resistance comes in at 63.65-63.67 and then at 64.76.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--November NG is down 2.5 cents at $3.072
NG futures are down again as shoulder season slack demand, lower feed gas volume to LNG export plants and ample storage though continue to weigh on the market.

NGI commentary says that the weather forecast has "delayed a heating demand uptick". On top of that is the prospect for this week's EIA gas storage data to see the deficit to last year's inventories turn to a surplus.

Feed gas volume today is 14.44 BCF/d with the Sabine Pass and Cove Point facilities taking less gas. This is offset somewhat by increases to the Corpus Christi and Freeport plants. Today's total feed gas volume compares to volume of 15.74 BCF/d seen last week.

The options for the expiring October contract saw some heavy volume traded on the CME on Monday. The October $2.60/$2.50 put spread traded 1.2 cents. The October/ November 1 month -25 cents/-20 cents call spread traded in a 1 by 2 ratio at a cost of 0.7 cents. The October $2.75 puts were seen involved in several different trades. Among them, the $3.00/$2.75 put spread saw trades at a cost between 11.3 and 15.5 cents. Also, the $2.75 puts traded at a cost of 1.7 to 2.0 cents against the October futures priced at $2.93 in a .15 delta ratio. The October $2.75 put open interest fell by over 7,000 contracts in CME data for Monday's activity.

One analyst wrote the following yesterday regarding the soon to expire October futures:" with resistance at $2.92 and $2.98 a push back above $3 doesn't appear to be in the cards before October rolls off the board." His view is in keeping with the resistance we see for the October futures at $3.00. The October spot futures with Monday's close had seen prices fall by 9.57% in the past 4 sessions. 

The November futures contract, now the highest volume traded month, has a mean reversion set up with Monday's settlement below the lower bollinger band on the daily chart. That band lies today at 3.088. The November futures has fallen today to a new contract low of 3.060. Support we see below that from DC chart data comes in at 3.046-3.051 and then at 3.008-3.014. November resistance is likely at recent lows at 3.170-3.174 and then at the highs of the prior 2 sessions at 3.233-3.241. Today, the rest of the winter strip of November to March has tested the lower bollinger bands on their respective daily charts. The October spot futures tested our support at 2.774 today with an overnight low of 2.772.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC