Daily Energy Market Update September 22, 2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

After attempting to rally overnight on the back of geopolitical tension, energy prices are now lower as worries over supply and demand retake hold.

Polish and allied aircraft were deployed early on Saturday to ensure the safety of Polish airspace after Russia launched airstrikes targeting western Ukraine near the border with Poland, armed forces of the NATO-member country said. The deployment came after three Russian military jets violated NATO Estonia's airspace for 12 minutes on Friday. (Reuters) On Sunday, Germany’s air force reported that a Russian military plane entered neutral airspace over the Baltic Sea. (Investing.com)

French President Macron called the European Union's remaining energy imports from Russia "very marginal." "This is not a key driver today. We decreased by more than 80% the consumption of oil and gas," President Macron said in an interview with CBS’s Face the Nation broadcast.

Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, has increased oil exports under an OPEC+ agreement, state oil marketer SOMO said on Sunday. SOMO expects September's average exports to range from 3.4 to 3.45 MMBPD. This is up slightly from August's export level of 3.38 MMBPD. Iraq has also given preliminary approval to a plan to resume pipeline oil exports from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through Turkey following delays to a hoped-for restart.  (Reuters)

One bright spot for oil demand in recent months has been Chinese stockpiling. But, today commentary from oil analysts Vortexa suggests that some of that trend may ease. China’s growth of Iranian crude imports may be limited due to record Shandong inventories and year end quota limits, Vortexa said. China’s imports from the transhipment hub of Malaysia and from Iraq rose to in August while imports from Russia and Saudi Arabia fell, customs data showed. (Market News) Russia and Saudi Arabia are China's 2 largest oil suppliers.

WTI Midland crude is seen having lost much of its price advantage for delivery into Asia for December. VLCCs of the US export grade are now trading at an 80 cents/b discount to Murban for December, narrowing from a $3/b discount last week, according to Sparta data.  “Higher relative freight costs, a rally in Magellan East Houston and slowly declining Middle East spot premiums have all played a role in this competitive shift,”, Sparta analysis says.  (Market News)

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report issued Friday showed money managers added net length in WTI futures/options on ICE/CME in the week ended Tuesday September 16. They added 30,855 contracts, mostly through covering of shorts. RB net length rose by 2,949 contracts, while ULSD net length fell by 1,750 contracts.

The Baker Hughes oil rig count seen Friday showed an increase of 2 units.

The EU's  new package of sanctions against Russia targets banks, oil vessels and buyers of Russian oil, while lowering the crude oil price cap. One bank analyst said this week that the previous 18 rounds of EU sanctions since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine "have proven largely ineffective in stopping the flow of Russian oil exports." (WSJ) The EU won’t tariff China and India to please Trump. But it is working on a counteroffer. On Friday, EU President von der Leyen also spoke about the EU taking tougher stances on China and even India by targeting cryptocurrencies, banking, and energy firms that are helping Russia circumvent sanctions. (Atlantic Council.org)

Today is the last trading session for the October WTI futures.

Energy Market Technicals

Technically the energies have negative momentum basis their November daily charts. The products have clear stepladder down patterns from the past several sessions.

WTI for November sees support at 61.42-61.46 and then at 60.99-61.06. Resistance lies at 63.35-63.38.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 2.9 cents at $2.917.
NG spot futures are up slightly having traded in a tight range overnight even as low weather demand and high storage inventories make for a negative undertone. Summer officially ends today.

Celsius Energy pointed out on Friday that the NG share of the power burn for electricity seen during the first half of September lags behind that seen in the prior 2 years. Currently the share is about 42.5% --versus 2024's share of about 47% and 2023's share of about 46%. Celsius Energy commentary suggests that the selloff in NG futures seen Thursday and the weak EIA number released Thursday both were impacted negatively by the reduced power burn.

The CFTC  Commitment of Traders report issued Friday showed money managers reduced their net short positioning by 1,692 contracts to a total of 23,288 contracts in the week ended Tuesday September 16.

Early estimates seen for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a build of 77 to 78 BCF. This compares to last year's build of 49 BCF and the 5 year average build of 76 BCF. Thus, the deficit to last year's inventories would turn to a surplus with this week's forecasted data.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count was unchanged in Friday's report.

Russia still covers more than 10% of EU's gas imports, roughly half of which comes via LNG," ANZ analysts say. This news comes as the latest package of EU sanctions calls for a ban on all Russian LNG imports as of Jan. 1, 2027. (WSJ)

Technically momentum remains negative basis the DC chart. Support for the spot futures comes in at 2.857-2.859, which was almost tested with today's low being 2.862. Next support below lies then at 2.774. Resistance comes in at $3.00. 

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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