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- Daily Energy Market Update September 2, 2026
Oil rallied overnight as the latest escalation in US-Iran fighting pushed Brent above $97 before giving back much of the move. Crude is now trading close to unchanged heading into the US open as the initial geopolitical premium has eased.
The latest strikes mark a significant escalation after roughly a month of relative calm, with the US targeting Iranian radar and mine-laying capabilities and Iran retaliating against US positions across the region. The key concern for the oil market is whether the renewed fighting leads to another deterioration in physical flows through the region.
On the longer-term supply side, Chevron announced plans to invest more than $7 billion in Venezuela over the next five years, with production targeted at roughly 600,000 barrels a day. The expansion adds another potential source of incremental supply, although the barrels will take time to develop and are unlikely to offset any immediate disruption from the current Middle East situation.
Crude (CL1)
Crude made a new high for the recent move overnight, trading to 92.29 at 7:00 a.m. before moving back to unchanged.
Yesterday marked the first close above the upper Bollinger Band since July 23. Crude subsequently declined to 74.24 within two weeks after reversing back below the upper Bollinger Band and the 100-day moving average in July.
The potential reversal today will be important to watch on a closing basis. A close below yesterday’s 90.22 close would create bearish confluence with the reversal off the new high, as well as a move back inside the upper Bollinger Band after yesterday’s close above it.
Momentum also remains very close to overbought.
Key Levels
Resistance
90.54 — Upper Bollinger Band (watch on a closing basis)
93.50 — July 23 high
Support
86.76 — 100-day moving average
84.03 — 20-day moving average
80.13 — 50-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Heating oil made a new high overnight at 4.7661 before reversing and trading lower on the day. There was bearish confluence on the reversal, with bearish divergence on the new high (higher price high with a lower momentum high). If it closes below 4.6535, it will also be closing back below the upper Bollinger Band after closing above it yesterday. This bearish confluence suggests we may be at a near-term top.
Momentum is still in overbought territory, which should create additional headwinds for heating oil from here.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.6535 — Upper Bollinger Band
4.7661 — Overnight high
Support
4.4400 — Previous double top
4.2302 — 20-day moving average
3.9696 — Reversal bar low (August 26)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread also printed a bearish divergence on the new high overnight (14.47). While price is showing signs of a potential reversal if we get a close below yesterday’s close (13.40), it is still trading above the upper Bollinger Band, showing relative strength compared to crude and heat. A close back below 12.93 would mark the additional bearish confluence seen in crude and heat.
Momentum is still overbought, but the divergence we are seeing should make any near-term rallies more muted.
Key Levels
Resistance
14.47 — Overnight high
Support
12.93 — Upper Bollinger Band
10.84 — Previous double top (pivot)
9.20 — 20-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Natural Gas is up 0.030 overnight at 2.934. It gapped open higher, trading right up to the upper Bollinger Band, and then pulled back to support at the 50-day moving average. It is consolidating between these two important technical levels. A close over the upper Bollinger Band opens the door for a move to the 100-day moving average at 3.056, while a close below the 50-day moving average opens the door to a test of the 20-day moving average at 2.828.
Momentum has moved into overbought territory but is still pointing higher, giving a mixed reading. The level suggests we may be due for a correction lower, while the direction says there may be more to the upside.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.965 — Upper Bollinger Band
2.990 — Last week's high
3.056 — 100-day moving average
Support
2.911 — 50-day moving average
2.828 — 20-day moving average
2.691 — Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGV26)
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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