Daily Energy Market Update September 19,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are lower as demand concerns become greater. Worries over the US economy and what the Fed rate cut suggests about demand have become greater. Additionally, as one analyst says: "On the supply side, planned production increases from OPEC+ and signs of oversupply in U.S. fuel-product inventories are weighing on sentiment,". The supply/demand concerns are outweighing worries over Russian sanctions.

The European Commission will propose banning Russian LNG imports by January 1, 2027, a year earlier than planned, as part of a 19th package of sanctions against Moscow, EU sources said on Friday. Russia supplies more than 10% of the European Union’s gas imports, roughly half of which comes via LNG. (ING)  Bloomberg reporting signaled the European Commission may be more focused on targeting Russian LNG rather than oil in its latest sanctions package. This is seen contributing to weaker oil prices as this sees the status quo for Russian barrels continuing. Many EU countries are reluctant to hit India and China with tariffs for purchases of Russian oil.

President Trump and Chinese leader Xi  are expected to hold a phone call on Friday morning, with a possible deal on TikTok’s U.S. operations topping the agenda. It would mark the first direct engagement between the leaders since June. Talks on tariffs are also seen happening in the phone call. (Bloomberg/South China Morning Post)

Thursday's pullback in oil prices was said to have been fueled by comments from President Trump: "he told reporters that “if we get oil down, the war ends,” a sign of his preferred strategy to halt the flow of petrodollars that fund Russia’s war effort." (rigzone) News wire accounts suggest that the President prefers low prices versus sanctions on Russia.

Two more Russian oil refineries were attacked on Thursday as Ukraine stepped up strikes. A Ukraine source said that long-range drones hit one of the largest oil refineries and petrochemical plants in the country, 800 miles from the front lines. The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces said that, based on preliminary data, the Wednesday night attack forced another refinery 300 miles from the front lines to shut down. The site processes 15.7 million tons of oil every year (equal to 315.29 MBPD), accounting for nearly 6% of Russia's total oil processing capabilities, the command added. (Business Insider) As a result of the repeated Ukrainian strikes, Russian refining runs have now dropped below 5 MMBPD, the lowest since April 2022, according to estimates from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (Bloomberg)

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum is positive for the energies, although price action signals more of a range bound market. In fact, there is a stepladder down pattern from the past few days.

November WTI support lies at 62.26-62.32 and then at 61.42-61.46. Resistance lies at 63.66-63.70 and then at 64.60-64.62.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 4.6 cents at 2.893
NG futures are lower continuing the downturn seen yesterday as the EIA storage number disappointed and some cooling degree days were lost in the 5-10 day forecast, as per NatGasWeather.

The EIA storage data disappointed with a "hefty" build as one analyst put it. The 90 BCF build was 10 to 12 BCF larger than forecast. Total storage grew to 3.433 TCF. This is +204 BCF/+6.32% versus the 5 year average. The deficit to last year has almost been wiped out. This year's storage is -4 BCF/-0.12% versus last year's level.

NatGasWeather describes the upcoming period of weather as follows: " The market is "pretty much out of time for late summer heat to inflict damage," the forecaster says, adding that starting in October gains in demand for cooling are often offset by loss of heating demand. "Weather patterns will soon need to be cooler than normal to be considered bullish." (WSJ) Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that forecasts shifted cooler for the middle of the U.S. for September 23-27, and cooler weather will persist over the eastern two-thirds of the US for September 28-October 2.  (Barchart)

The Cove Point, Maryland LNG plant operated by Berkshire Hathaway, has seen its feed gas demand volume shrink by 0.7 BCF/d since Monday as it enters its usual 3 week maintenance period. (NGI)

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 102.8 BCF/d this week to 103.4 BCF/d next week. These forecasts were up 0.2 BCF/d from those seen the day before.
 
EU storage is now 81% full, down from 93.4% at the same time last year and below the five-year average of 87.6%. The expectations for cooler weather in northwest Europe over the coming week might slow down the fuel injections, as the region braces for the start of the heating season. (ING) Spot TTF futures prices have stabilized in the low Euro 30's. Those prices have been in a mostly sideways pattern for the past few weeks.

Technically momentum for the NG spot futures is negative, basis the DC chart. Next best support for the NG spot futures lies at 2.869 and then at 2.774. Price action this week signals that prices over 3.10 are not sustainable. Resistance is seen at 3.021-3.023 and then at 3.106-3.107.

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