Daily Energy Market Update September 17,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are lower as the dollar has rebounded some ahead of today's Federal Reserve meeting, but news wire commentary cites the ongoing worries over Russian oil supply, which boosted prices Tuesday. Today's pullback in prices comes even as the API data showed better than expected draws in crude and gasoline supplies.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected today to make its first interest rate cut of 2025, but the bigger question for investors is how many more cuts could be on the way. A 25 basis point interest rate reduction is expected today.  (Yahoo Finance) The Euro has retreated today after hitting a 4 year high versus the U.S. dollar Tuesday.

Transneft, the Russian oil pipeline company, issued a statement refuting Tuesday's Reuters news of a possible need for oil output cuts. In a statement on its website, Transneft described the news as "fake" and part of the West's "information war" against Russia. However, Transneft, which handles more than 80% of all the oil extracted in Russia, has in recent days restricted oil firms' ability to store oil in its pipeline system, two industry sources close to Russian oil firms told Reuters. Transneft has also warned producers it may have to accept less oil if its infrastructure sustains further damage, the two sources said.

Concerns over Russian supply are underscored by news regarding possible further EU sanctions. The EU is discussing further restrictions to reduce Russia’s energy revenues including sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies that facilitate imports from Russia. EC President von der Leyen said that the EU is looking into fast tracking the end of energy imports from Russia after the US said it needs to stop. Von der Leyen said that she had a call with Trump on Tuesday on strengthening joint efforts to increase economic pressure on Russia through additional measures. (Market News/Reuters)

The rally Monday in energy prices saw the distillates lead the way, largely due to the worries over Russian supply. The latest Ukrainian strike on a Russian refinery was the key catalyst. The Saratov refinery targeted Sunday is one of the major suppliers of gasoline and diesel to the European part of Russia.

API                      Forecast          Actual
Crude Oil          -0.9/+1.85        -3.42
Gasoline          Unch/+0.414    -0.691
Distillate           +0.5/+1.27      +1.906
Cushing               +0.225           -0.379
Runs                  -0.4/-0.6%         n/av


Today is the last trading day for the October LO/WTI options. The $65 strike is the only nearby strike with any sizable open interest. The $65 strike has a total of just over 23,000 contracts open on the CME, which we do not see as enough to promote any large movement in the futures at settlement today. 

Bloomberg reports that one fund, in recent days, has wagered on Brent falling to $50 using options.  A buyer of the $50/$49 put spread would profit if the February Brent futures sink some 25% by the December 23 options expiration from the current level around $68 a barrel. The puts traded amounted to an equivalent of 10 million barrels worth of oil.

Energy Market Technicals

Technically the  ULSD & RB contracts have mean reversion setups basis the November daily charts, having settled over the upper bollinger bands. Also giving pause to a bullish narrative are the RB and ULSD contracts having double tops on the November charts from yesterday and today. The November contracts are now the highest volume traded months in those commodities.

In November RB the double top is at 1.9869-1.9874. Above that resistance lies at 2.0101-2.0111. The upper bollinger band intersects at 1.9825. Support is seen down at 1.9617-1.9627 and then at 1.9409-1.9412.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas-- NG is up 5.4 cents
NG futures are higher again today as lower U.S. natural gas production and late summer heat are supportive.

The NG futures were supported Tuesday by the news that : “National demand will be a little stronger than normal the next seven days as very warm to hot highs of mid-80s to 100s covers most of the interior U.S.,” NatGasWeather.com says in a note. “This warmer pattern was only supposed to last another 3-5 days but increased a couple extra days after hotter trends the past several days.”  (WSJ) Tuesday saw this comment : "Much warmer-than-normal conditions are forecast across most of North America for Sept. 21-25, according to Bloomberg."

Today's U.S. domestic natural gas production is estimated down at 106.1 BCF/d after falling to 106.9 BCF/d on Tuesday compared to the 30-day average of 108.46 BCF/d, according to Bloomberg data.

Tuesday saw the next day Henry Hub cash price gain further. The price seen was up 7 cents versus Monday's $3.00 price. This helped boost October futures given the recent flat differential between the cash and futures prices.

Technically the recent rally has caused momentum to turn neutral from a negative condition. Resistance at 3.130 has been pierced with next resistance seen up at 3.198-3.199. Support lies at 3.061-3.068.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC