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- Daily Energy Market Update September 11, 2026
Oil prices have pulled back from yesterday’s sharp rally, with U.S. crude slipping back below $100 while Brent remains above that level. The pullback follows reports of diplomatic efforts to establish a temporary arrangement for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, taking some of the immediate geopolitical premium out of crude.
The more important development is the continued strength in refined products. U.S. diesel prices reached a record $6.0556 per gallon, while the global middle-distillate market continues to tighten as Middle Eastern and Russian supply remains disrupted. Diesel is showing greater upside pressure than crude as Gulf shipping constraints and Russian refinery outages continue to affect supply.
The physical market remains tight. The IEA said global inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels per day in August and expects global oil supply to decline by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, while demand is projected to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day.
For traders, the key takeaway is that the pullback in crude has not been matched by relief in the product markets. If that divergence persists, it would suggest the market is increasingly pricing actual supply constraints in refined products rather than simply carrying a geopolitical risk premium in crude.
Crude (CL1)
Crude sold off overnight, trading back below $100. It is down $3.53 at $99.00 as of 6:45 a.m. The market gapped higher overnight, making a new high of $104.46 before reversing sharply. While the selloff was significant, crude is still maintaining its pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with the broader short-term trend remaining intact as long as price holds above $95.37.
Momentum is still pointing higher. It will likely take more than one day of selling, or even several sessions of stable prices, for momentum to begin turning lower from overbought levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
104.46 — Overnight high
99.73 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
92.83 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (August low to overnight high)
88.72 — Last week’s low
88.48 — 20-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Heating oil also gapped higher overnight, making a slightly new high of 5.1664 before retracing lower. Price is currently trading just above the upper Bollinger Band at 5.0555 (8:00am). The pullback in heating oil has been less significant than in crude, highlighting the relative strength in heating oil. If price can hold above 4.7078 today, it would maintain the pattern of higher highs and higher lows despite the selloff.
Momentum has crossed over and is now pointing lower, suggesting heating oil may encounter more pressure on attempts to make new highs, particularly if the momentum rollover continues.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.1664 — Overnight high
Support
4.7078 — Yesterday’s low
4.4537 — 20-day moving average
4.0430 — 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is down 2.80 at 19.01 in overnight trading. The reversal pushed below the upper Bollinger Band after 2 consecutive closes above the band. The pullback marks the first significant retracement since August 25th. The bullish price structure that's developed over the past several weeks remains intact as long as there isn't a close below yesterday's low at 17.17.
Momentum crossed over to the downside and is now pointing lower from overbought levels. The high in momentum the last few days is the most overbought the spread has been in months.
Key Level
Resistance
19.88 Upper Bollinger Band
23.32 Overnight high
Support
17.17 yesterday's low
15.91 38.2% Fibonacci (August low to overnight high)
13.62 50% Fibonacci
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Natural gas had a relatively quiet overnight. Price was limited to trading inside of yesterday's range while starting in the US down 0.031 at 2.802. Yesterday there was a bullish reversal candle, but with momentum being in the overbought zone and turning lower, there is much less significance to the reversal candle. Key to watch from here is the pivot level above (20 day moving average at 2.855) and then the 50 day moving average, which are converging.
Momentum is crossed over and pointing down while still in overbought zone.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.855 20 day moving average
2.870 50 day moving average
2.987 Upper Bollinger Band
Support
2.753 Yesterday's reversal bar low
2.723 Lower Bollinger Band
2.668 Double bottom
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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