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- Daily Energy Market Update September 10, 2026
Oil is back above $100 a barrel as the escalation between the U.S. and Iran raises fresh concerns about disruptions to Middle East energy flows. But the bigger story is what is happening underneath the headline price: the market is increasingly concerned about whether crude can actually move through the region reliably, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.
The physical market is starting to reinforce that concern. Crude differentials have strengthened and inventories have continued to decline, while the amount of oil sitting on tankers has fallen significantly since the middle of July. The barrels are still there, but the challenge is getting them to the right place. That is becoming increasingly important as the conflict raises the risk of further disruptions to regional exports.
Shipping has become one of the clearest signs of the stress in the market. Tanker rates have surged as operators face higher risks and are being forced to take longer, more expensive routes. The cost of moving crude from the Middle East to Asia has reached extraordinary levels, while U.S. Gulf-to-Asia freight costs have also jumped sharply. In other words, the market is not simply paying more for oil—it is paying much more to move it.
The futures curve is telling a similar story. Both Brent and WTI spreads have strengthened significantly, with the market placing a much higher premium on prompt barrels. That is an important distinction from a purely geopolitical price spike. When the physical market, freight market and forward curve are all tightening at the same time, it suggests the market is dealing with a genuine supply and logistics constraint.
China is also becoming more supportive for crude prices as its buying activity picks up after a period of weaker demand. At the same time, refined products—particularly diesel—remain under pressure. Global diesel supplies are tight, Russian exports have fallen sharply, and U.S. inventories are expected to decline further. That creates an additional source of pressure on the broader energy complex and raises the risk that higher energy costs begin feeding more directly into inflation.
For now, the key question is how long the disruption lasts. If crude continues to move through Hormuz, the market may be able to manage the situation despite the higher cost and risk. But a more serious restriction on flows would put further pressure on both crude and products. For traders, the focus should be on physical flows, tanker activity, Chinese buying and inventory data—not just whether Brent is above or below $100.
Crude (CL1)
Crude is up $4.06 this morning after gaining approximately 1.70 earlier in the session. Buying accelerated over the past hour, with crude jumping more than 2.00 and breaking through the key 98.30 61.8% Fibonacci resistance, followed by the psychological 100.00 level. Price has now pushed to a high of 100.88, confirming the strength of the current move and putting the next major resistance near 109.24 in focus.
Momentum is deep into overbought territory but continues to point higher. Despite the extreme move, there is not yet a clear momentum reversal, suggesting the upside trend remains intact.
Key Levels
Resistance
100.88 — High this morning
109.24 — Gap from mid-May
Support
98.30 — Key 61.8% Fibonacci level, previously resistance
97.42 — Upper Bollinger Band
87.47 — 20-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Heating oil came into the U.S. open appearing to have formed a double top, but the market reversed higher and pushed to a new high of 4.9760 Price is currently trading near the highs, showing that buyers remain firmly in control despite the earlier reversal signal.
Momentum has crossed over from overbought territory and appears to be running out of steam. More importantly, momentum is showing a bearish divergence: price has made a new high, while momentum has failed to confirm the move and remains below its previous high. This divergence suggests the rally is becoming increasingly stretched and raises the risk of a short-term pullback.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.9760 — This morning’s high
Support
4.4338 — Friday’s low
4.0030 — 50-day moving average
3.9347 — Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOV6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread gapped higher overnight and briefly dipped to trade lower on the day before bouncing back. It is now trading near its overnight high of 20.77. Today marks the seventh consecutive day with price trading around the upper Bollinger Band, highlighting the strength and persistence of the move higher.
Momentum remains overbought and appears to be starting to cross over to the downside. But there needs to be a confirmation in price before there’s a chance to see a retracement.
Key Levels
Resistance
20.77 — Overnight high
Support
13.04 — September 4 low
11.45 — 20-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Natural Gas is down 0.033 overnight at 2.789. Yesterday, NG broke and closed below the 20-day moving average at 2.852, marking the first close below the 20-day average in more than three weeks. The break is an important shift in the short-term trend and confirms that the recent move higher had become stretched.
Momentum had already crossed over and was pointing lower from the overbought zone. With price now breaking below the 20-day moving average, the momentum rollover is being confirmed and suggests there is more room for NG to move lower before momentum reaches neutral territory. The next downside targets are the lower Bollinger Band at 2.716, followed by the early-August double bottom at 2.668.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.852 — 20-day moving average
2.876 — 50-day moving average
2.988 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
2.716 — Lower Bollinger Band
2.668 — Double bottom from early August
Natural Gas (NGV26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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