Daily Energy Market Update September 10,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy prices are higher --led by crude oil. Geopolitical tensions and possible further sanctions against Russian oil are supporting prices. API data disappointed with builds in all the inventories, which may cap price gains.

In the past 24 hours, the geopolitical tension has risen as Israel attacked Hamas official in Qatar and Poland shot down Russian drones that it says violated its airspace. 'The Polish military accused Moscow of an "act of aggression" early Wednesday. The incident marked a first for a NATO member state since the Kremlin invaded its neighbor. Leaders across Europe condemned the incident as the latest sign of escalation from the Kremlin."  The Polish Premier added that a significant number of the drones flew in from Belarus, an authoritarian ally of Russia used as a launching pad for attacks on Ukraine. The E.U. called it the “most serious European airspace violation by Russia since the war began.”  (NBC News)

Israel said Tuesday that it had attacked Hamas leadership in Doha, drawing rebukes from Qatari and U.S. officials on concerns that such a move stood to derail ongoing peace talks. President Trump told reporters he was “very unhappy” about the strike.  (Investing.com) The strike is a significant escalation of Israeli extraterritorial operations, hitting a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member for the first time. (Market News)

Reuters reported President Trump has called on the European Union to also steeply tariff India and China over their buying of Russian energy.  President Trump has urged the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on China and India as a strategy to pressure Russian President Putin, according to Reuters' sources.

API                Forecast         Actual
Crude Oil    -1.0/-1.95         +1.25
Gasoline      -0.2/-1.5        +0.329
Distillate    -0.04/-0.417     +1.5
Cushing           n/av               -0.3
Runs            -0.6/-0.9%        n/av

The EIA, in its monthly Short term Energy Outlook (STEO) issued Tuesday, said that the sharp drop in prices for crude oil that they see in 2026 versus this year is "driven by large oil inventory builds as OPEC+ members increase production. We expect global oil inventory builds will average more than 2 MMBPD from 3Q25 through 1Q26. We expect low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, moderating inventory builds later in 2026. " The EIA raised their global crude oil production estimate by 0.1 MMBPD in 2025 to 105.5 MMBPD and by 0.2 MMBPD to 106..6 MMBPD. They raised their global oil demand forecast by 0.1 MMBPD in 2025 to 103.8 MMBPD and by 0.2 MMBPD in 2026 to 105.1 MMBPD. The EIA raised their 2025 average prices forecasts for WTI and Brent by 58 cents from last month's estimates, while leaving the 2026 forecasts unchanged. WTI is seen averaging $64.16 in 2025, falling to $47.77 in 2026. Brent is seen averaging $67.80 in 2025, falling to $51.43 in 2026.  "Falling oil prices in our forecast lead to a drop in gasoline prices. Driven by falling gasoline prices, U.S. drivers’ gasoline expenditures as a share of disposable personal income are likely to be the lowest since at least 2005. We now forecast a slight increase in U.S. gasoline consumption next year, "the EIA wrote.

Gasoline cracks in the European market have risen to levels last seen over a year ago on the back of refinery maintenance.  (Quantum Commodities)

Energy Market Technicals

The energies are currently having inside trading days versus yesterday's price ranges. WTI momentum remains negative as per the DC chart, while that for RB has turned positive from an oversold condition.

WTI spot futures see support at 62.17-62.19 and then at the recent low at 61.45. Resistance comes in at 64.34-64.42 and then at 65.10-65.11.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas- NG is down 9.7 cents
NG futures are lower this morning as Gas Weighted Degree Days (a measure of demand) have been slight of late and tomorrow's EIA gas storage data is seen increasing the surplus to the 5 year average. Additionally, yesterday's EIA STEO saw their forecasts for prices reduced for this year and next and this year's production forecast increased. Cooler weather forecasts are also seen weighing on prices, as per Market News wire commentary. 

The GWDD's for yesterday and today have been the lowest for the past 6 years. (Celsius Energy)

The EIA gas storage to be released tomorrow is seen increasing the 5 year surplus by 14 to 18 BCF. Estimates are for a build of 70 to 74 BCF. The 5 year average build is 56 BCF.

The EIA, in its monthly Short term Energy Outlook (STEO) issued Tuesday, said that 2026 U.S. NG production will be flat versus 2025. U.S. NG production in 2026 is seen at 106.0 BCF/d versus 2025 output of 106.6 BCF/d. The forecast for this year was raised by 0.2 BCF/d, while that for next year was lowered by 0.1 BCF/d versus the August STEO. The U.S. gas demand figures were little changed versus those seen last month. NG demand in 2025 is seen at 91.5 BCF/d, up 0.1 BCF/d and 2026 demand is seen at 91.4 BCF/d, up 0.2 BCF/d versus last month's estimate. The NG price in the U.S. is seen averaging $3.52 this year, which is down 9 cents versus last month's forecast. The forecast for 2026 of $4.28 is down 6 cents from the August STEO. The EIA wrote : " We expect the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will rise from an average of $2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in August to $3.70/MMBtu in 4Q25 and $4.30/MMBtu next year. Rising natural gas prices reflect relatively flat natural gas production amid an increase in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports." The  rising gas prices and falling crude oil prices in 2026 should bring crude oil to its lowest premium to gas since 2005. (Reuters) The EIA sees gas inventories EOS this year at 3.912 TCF. That forecast is up 40 BCF from last month's estimate. The Desk's survey has EOS forecast at 3.935 TCF. The EIA sees March 2026 EOS at 1.852 TCF; the Desk's survey this week is calling for storage to be 1.813 TCF at EOS in March 2026.

Momentum basis the DC chart has turned negative, as the current spot futures price is below the prior 6 days' highs. Resistance is seen at 3.130-3.131 and then at 3.186-3.187. Support at 3.021-3.022 has been pierced this morning with next support below seen at 2.960-2.964.

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