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- Daily Energy Market Update October 9, 2026
Crude prices backed off overnight as comments out of Washington took some of the heat out of the Iran trade. WTI and Brent had a modest selloff. The market is still carrying a lot of geopolitical premium after Thursday's sharp rally.
President Trump said the U.S. is having "productive discussions" with Iran and that no attack is planned before the November 3 midterms, following reports that he was weighing military action. That calmed some of the near-term fear around strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and export routes. He also said record volumes of crude are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, though the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains fully in place.
The dip didn't go far. Later reports said the U.S. had prepared three days of strikes on Iranian energy sites and missile and drone stockpiles, which kept buyers interested on the pullback. Iran's foreign minister was also reported to be reviewing the U.S. response to a proposal to reopen the Strait within seven days, so traders are watching for an answer either way.
Supply risks are still in the background. Washington added new sanctions on individuals, networks and 17 vessels moving Iranian oil and petrochemicals. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, producers have shut in a large share of offshore output ahead of Hurricane Isaias, adding another layer of near-term supply risk.
With diplomacy and strike headlines pulling in opposite directions, the overnight move looks like a modest unwind of Thursday's gains, not a change in direction. Traders will be watching the Hormuz talks, any U.S. or Iranian statements, and the pace of the Gulf restart as the session gets underway.
Crude (CL1)
Crude had a modest selloff overnight as the market digests yesterday's rally. The overnight range was a little more than $1.00, after yesterday's move of over $4.40 from low to high. So far it is posting an inside day as it comes into the U.S. open at 90.64 (6:30 am).
The 50-day moving average (88.98) is still the key support to watch on a closing basis. Momentum is pointing higher as it’s started to move out of oversold territory.
Key Levels
Resistance
94.10 – 20-day moving average
94.46 – 38.2% Fibonacci (Sept 15 high to Tuesday's low)
96.81 – 50% Fibonacci
Support
88.98 – 50-day moving average
86.86 – Tuesday's low
85.65 – 100-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil is coming into the U.S. open (6:50 am) close to unchanged. It sold off to 4.7632 overnight before recovering most of its losses. The overnight range was close to half of yesterday's range, creating an inside day. Yesterday's close of 4.8741 was a 3-week-high close for heating oil.
Momentum is still pointing higher, although it is approaching overbought levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.9126 – Yesterday's high
5.0008 – Upper Bollinger Band
5.0499 – High from Sept 15 and double top
Support
4.7076 – 20-day moving average
4.6319 – 50% Fibonacci (Tuesday's low to yesterday's high)
4.5657 – 61.8% Fibonacci and Wednesday's low
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Brent/WTI Dec
The arb held key support yesterday, creating a double bottom (-13.90) that also aligned with the lower Bollinger Band. It traded higher overnight and is coming into the U.S. open (7:10 am) at -13.07, after closing at -13.52 yesterday. While the bounce has been modest, as long as we don't see a close below the double bottom we can potentially see more of a recovery.
Momentum is giving conflicting signals in that it's oversold and pointing lower but it’s posting a bullish divergence (same price low but higher momentum low).
Key Levels
Resistance
-12.84 – Yesterday's high
-12.17 – Wednesday's high
-10.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (July high to Monday's low)
Support
-13.90 – Double bottom
-14.25 – Lower Bollinger Band
Brent/WTI Dec
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Natural gas posted a large bearish reversal candle yesterday, making a new high and closing below the prior day's close. The close was back below the key 100-day moving average (3.179), which has acted as a significant pivot for nat gas. The price action was very close to what happened at the end of September, when price closed above the 100-day moving average but quickly reversed, heading back toward the multi-month lows before recovering and testing the topside again yesterday.
Momentum has moved into the neutral zone and looks to be attempting to cross lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.179 – 100-day moving average
3.283 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.298 – Yesterday's reversal bar high
Support
3.106 – Yesterday's low
3.094 – 20-day moving average
3.043 – 50-day moving average
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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