- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update October 8, 2026
Crude prices moved higher overnight as fresh developments in the Middle East added to concerns over regional supply and shipping disruptions. Brent made a new 5 day high and crude is approaching 93.00 (overnight high 92.82) as the market added risk premium to the ongoing geopolitical situation.
A new tanker attack in the Persian Gulf overnight, with multiple projectiles reportedly striking a vessel north of Qatar, renewed concerns over the safety of commercial shipping in the region. The latest incidents are adding pressure to an already fragile shipping environment and raising questions about the potential for further disruptions to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Geopolitical tensions also escalated overnight amid renewed concerns over potential U.S. military action against Iran. The possibility of a broader confrontation is keeping traders focused on the potential impact to Middle East production, exports and transportation infrastructure.
Additional support came from continued Houthi attacks and Saudi retaliation, further increasing concerns around regional oil infrastructure and shipping. At the same time, growing production shut-ins in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Isaias are adding another layer of near-term supply risk.
With several independent supply risks developing simultaneously, the overnight move higher reflects a broader increase in the market’s geopolitical and supply-risk premium. Traders will remain focused on developments around the Strait of Hormuz, U.S.-Iran tensions and the extent of Gulf production disruptions as the session gets underway.
Crude (CL1)
Crude tested downside support yesterday at the 50-day moving average (88.84) but was able to close above it. It has tested this support multiple times over the last two weeks but has not closed below it since late August, making this a key level to continue watching.
The move higher overnight pushed momentum back up from oversold territory after crude had traded sideways for more than a week. With momentum now pointing higher and crude bouncing off key support, the market looks positioned to test the upside.
Key Levels
Resistance
94.50/60 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Sept. 15 high to Tuesday’s low) and 20-day moving average
96.81 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
99.11 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
89.01 – 50-day moving average
86.86 – Tuesday’s low
85.80 – 100-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil also had a strong overnight rally, trading to a high of 4.8475 around 7:00 a.m. The move took out the last major Fibonacci resistance at 4.7830. The next levels to watch on the topside are the upper Bollinger Band at 4.9814, followed by the September 15 high and double top at 5.0499.
Momentum has moved closer to neutral territory but is still pointing higher, keeping the near-term technical picture constructive.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.9814 – Upper Bollinger Band
5.0499 – September 15 high / double top
Support
4.7015 – 20-day moving average
4.6539 – Overnight low
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Brent/WTI Dec
The arb came under pressure overnight, selling off into support at -13.74, the lower Bollinger Band, and making an overnight low of -13.77 before bouncing. There was a bullish reversal on Monday with momentum in oversold territory, and Monday’s low will be an important level to watch. The reversal remains intact unless there is a close below the reversal bar low at -13.91.
Momentum on today’s move lower is not confirming the selloff. Momentum is making a higher low compared with Monday’s move, which suggests there is still bounce risk from these levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
-12.17 – Yesterday’s high
-10.87 – Tuesday’s high
-10.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (July high to Monday’s low)
Support
-13.77 – Lower Bollinger Band
-13.91 – Monday’s low
Brent/WTI Dec
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Natural gas gapped higher overnight before filling the gap and trading lower, with prices coming into the U.S. open at 3.253. The overall price action remains bullish after natural gas closed back above the 100-day moving average, which has been a major resistance level. The last time it closed above the 100-day was in late September, and before that, it had not closed above the level since late January.
It will be important to watch the 100-day moving average on a closing basis to see if natural gas can maintain prices above it and continue higher toward the 200-day moving average at 3.478.
Momentum has moved into neutral territory but is still pointing higher, indicating there is still room for the market to test higher.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.296 – Upper Bollinger Band
3.395 – September 24 high
3.478 – 200-day moving average
Support
3.184 – 100-day moving average
3.110 – Yesterday’s low
3.091 – 20-day moving average
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply