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- Daily Energy Market Update October 7, 2026
Crude is relatively unchanged this morning, with WTI trading near 90.00 and Brent holding above $100 as the market balances several competing supply developments. Fresh Houthi attacks and a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico are keeping supply risks elevated, while improving Middle East crude exports are helping limit the upside.
Middle East tensions intensified overnight. Yemen’s Houthis launched ballistic missiles and explosive-laden drones at Aden International Airport, while the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted Houthi ballistic missiles targeting areas near Riyadh and Khamis Mushait. The Houthis also claimed attacks against Saudi airports and military facilities. Fighting has intensified near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping route that has become increasingly important as disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue.
Weather is also moving onto the market’s radar. A developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become the first Atlantic hurricane of the season and could threaten U.S. offshore oil and gas production as well as Gulf Coast refining operations. Offshore areas in the storm’s projected path account for roughly 15% of U.S. crude production, while Gulf Coast states contain approximately half of U.S. refining capacity.
Offsetting those risks is a continued recovery in Middle East supply flows. Saudi Arabia has increased shipments through its East-West pipeline to roughly 5.8 million barrels per day, while Vitol estimates approximately 12 million barrels per day of crude has left the Middle East by tanker over the past 7–10 days. The improvement in physical supply is helping keep crude relatively stable despite the renewed geopolitical and weather-related risks.
For today, crude remains caught between improving physical supply and the potential for fresh disruptions. The Gulf storm track and developments surrounding the Houthis and Saudi Arabia will remain key headline risks, while the market continues to assess whether the recent recovery in Middle East exports can be sustained.
Crude (CL1)
Crude traded through the key downside support zone at 88.50 yesterday but reversed into the end of the session, closing back above support. Heading into the U.S. open (6:30 a.m.), crude is mostly unchanged at 89.90.
Momentum remains oversold but is not indicating a clear directional bias. The market appears to be at an inflection point, awaiting the next headline or catalyst to determine whether the support zone, which has held for the past three weeks, continues to hold or whether we see a clean break below and establish a new trading range.
Key Levels
Resistance
94.46 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
95.25 – 20-day moving average
96.81 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
88.86 – 50-day moving average
86.86 – Yesterday's low
86.11 – 100-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil had a bullish reversal yesterday after making a new multi-week low and then reversing to close above Tuesday’s close. The upside momentum continued overnight, with heating oil reaching a four-day high of 4.7500 after closing yesterday at 4.6006.
Momentum has crossed higher from near-oversold levels and is pointing higher this morning, suggesting the move has room to continue. A break through the 4.7830 resistance level would put 5.0000 back in focus.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.7830 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Sept. 15 high to yesterday’s low)
5.0000 – Upper Bollinger Band
5.0499 – Double top from Sept. 15
Support
4.7095 – 20-day moving average
4.5844 – Overnight low
4.4193 – Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOX26)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread also posted a bullish reversal yesterday after making a new five-week low at 10.48. The overnight range was relatively small, and heading into the U.S. open (7:15 a.m.), the spread is relatively unchanged from yesterday’s close. It is currently trading just above the 50-day moving average at 12.24, which has acted as a pivot over the past week.
Momentum has not yet followed yesterday’s recovery and remains crossed lower in oversold territory. Watching today to see if momentum crosses higher to confirm the move off yesterday’s low. A failure to turn higher would leave the spread vulnerable to another test of the downside.
Key Levels
Resistance
15.54 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Sept. 15 high to yesterday’s low)
16.38 – 20-day moving average
17.10 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
12.24 – 50-day moving average; currently trading just above
10.48 – Yesterday’s low
9.47 – Lower Bollinger Band
Crude Spread (CLZ26/CLZ27)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Natural gas continues its move higher overnight, trading near 3.180 (7:30 a.m.) after closing yesterday at 3.117. Since posting a bullish reversal last Friday, natural gas has recorded consecutive higher highs and higher lows. It is now testing the key 100-day moving average, which has been a significant pivot level. Price briefly crossed above it in September but failed to hold. Prior to that, there had not been a close above the 100-day moving average since early February.
Momentum is pointing higher and has moved out of oversold territory. It still has room to run before reaching neutral, supporting the potential for further upside if price can establish a close above the 100-day moving average.
Key Levels
Resistance
- 3.180 – 100-day moving average (watch on a closing basis)
- 3.270 – Upper Bollinger Band
- 3.395 – Sept. 24 high
Support
- 3.070 – 20-day moving average
- 3.038 – 50-day moving average
- 2.912 – Friday’s reversal-bar low
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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