Daily Energy Market Update October 7,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

The watchword today for crude oil prices is "steady" as the market digests the OPEC+ decision from the weekend to raise output by 137 MBPD. OPEC+ did not discuss increasing quotas after November, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday. (Reuters)

At the OPEC+ meeting Sunday,  according to Bloomberg, there were some dissenting views with Russia arguing that prices needed to be supported and Algeria that demand could weaken but Saudi arguing for a larger target increase. RBC commentary cited the limited ability of OPEC+ to actually raise production.  RBC says the November increase will be less than half the headline figure of 137 MBPD. This comes after the UBS projection seen Monday of only an actual 60-70 MBPD rise in output.

Yet, news seen Monday showed Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.68 MMBPD in September, the highest in five years, the CEO of NNPC said on Monday, cited by Bloomberg. In December of 2024 output averaged 1.493 MMBPD, as per Nigerian government figures. (nuprc.gov)

Russia's Kirishi oil refinery halted its most productive distillation unit following a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with recovery likely to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday. The stoppage could lead to a small decline in oil product output. Reuters reports that the CDU in question has a capacity of 160 MBPD, accounting for around 40% of the plant's total processing capacity.

Exports of U.S. crude oil climbed to the highest level in over a year and a half in September, ship tracking data showed, as U.S. refineries began seasonal maintenance and Asian demand increased. U.S. crude exports rose to an average of 4.2 MMBPD in September, the highest since February 2024, according to data from ship tracking firm Kpler. Exports had eased in July to their lowest levels in nearly four years on low domestic supplies and as Asian and European buyers found cheaper alternatives. The WTI Brent arb widened in August, when the bulk of the trades for September were executed, averaging minus $3.79, the widest in four months. The wider arb incentivized more buying of WTI crude. Reuters commentary adds that "higher shipping costs and relatively high prices for WTI threaten to shut the U.S.-Asia oil arbitrage for November." Domestic demand should also increase after the turnaround season over the coming weeks as refiners come out of maintenance/turnaround, thus reducing the availability of barrels for export, analysts with Energy Aspects said in a note.

German industrial orders unexpectedly fell in August, marking a fourth straight month of decline, official data showed Tuesday. New orders fell by 0.8% in August, after falling 2.7% in July. August's drop was the 4th straight monthly fall. Forecasts for August were for a rise of 1 to 1.5%. WSJ commentary cites tariff uncertainty for part of the fall. The August figures were pulled down by a steep fall in overseas orders, as per a German federal statistics agency.

The AAA today shows the U.S. national retail gasoline average price to be $3.121, which is the lowest seen since June 10th. One week ago the price was $3.150 and one month ago it was $3.197.

The EIA website says that normal publication schedules and data collection will continue until further notice.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum basis the DC chart has turned positive for the WTI and RB today. ULSD momentum is still negative.

WTI spot futures see support at 60.40-60.47 and then at 59.74. Resistance comes in at 62.52-62.54 and then at 63.18-63.26.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is up 4.0 cents at $3.397
NG spot futures are higher with today's initial gas production figure down quite a bit from yesterday's volume.  LNG flows are down some after yesterday's strong feed gas volume, which was cited for aiding the spot futures higher settlement yesterday. As was seen yesterday, again today,  the spot futures November contract is the strongest in the complex.

BNEF (Bloomberg) estimates lower 48 dry gas production at 105.89 BCF/d, down from the previous day of 108.20 BCF/d. On Monday,  LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 106.5 BCF/d so far in October, down from 107.1 BCF/d in September and the record monthly high of 108.0 BCF/d in August.

Commentary seen Monday cited the "resurgent" LNG feed gas volume and a boost in heating demand for the positive settlement for the November (+3.3 cents) spot futures. December futures (-2.0 cents) settled lower on the day, as did January futures (-1.4 cents).  We also attribute the stronger November futures to the strength in the next day cash Henry Hub prices. They were quoted mid-morning at 3.25/3.295--versus November futures printing 3.360. The cash futures differential thus narrowed to 6.5 to 11 cents --versus Thursday's 12.5 to 16.5 cent and Wednesday's 17 cent differentials.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.2 BCF/d so far in October, up from 15.7 BCF/d in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 BCF/d in April. (Reuters) We wish to remind our readers that the LNG volume is 0.75 BCF/d lower in October than might be normally seen due to the Cove Point plant's maintenance. The plant is due to restart this Friday Oct. 10. Today's initial feedgas volume is said to be 15.0 BCF/d, down from yesterday's volume of 15.80 BCF/d, as per Bloomberg data.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states on Monday, including exports, would slide from 99.4 BCF/d this week to 98.2 BCF/d next week. This week's demand forecast is up 0.6 BCF/d versus the one seen last Wednesday. But, forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Monday that forecasts shifted cooler across the U.S. for October 16-20, thus supporting NG futures pricing.

Early estimates for this week's EIA gas storage data are calling for a build of 75 to 80 BCF. This compares to last year's build of 78 BCF and the 5 year average build of 94 BCF. NGI is modeling a 77 BCF increase. They say that a 77 BCF injection would put working gas in storage on pace to hit 3,907 BCF by the traditional start of withdrawal season on Nov. 1, down 28 BCF from the figure we calculated last week. While that would mark consecutive weekly declines, the pace remains well above the median 3,755 BCF of working gas storage that has been in place going into winter since 2010.

TTF European natural gas prices are higher again today. ING commentary reads as follows: " Prices remain supported amid persistent risks to supplies, along with expectations of colder weather conditions driving up demand. Recent reports suggest that Russia has intensified air strikes across Ukraine, further damaging gas infrastructure. Meanwhile, recent weather forecasts suggest colder-than-normal temperatures in the coming months, which might slow down the fuel injections, as the region braces for the start of the heating season. Meanwhile, EU storage is now almost 83% full, down from 94.4% at the same time last year and below the five-year average of 90.4%."

One notable open increase seen in CME data for the LN/NG options from Monday's activity was in the March/April 1 month CSO. 2,500 contracts of the flat put traded at a price of 4.1 cents. The March April futures spread settled Monday at plus 14.6 cents. The contract lowest price traded is plus 10.8 cents.

Technically the DC chart for NG shows momentum turning negative even as the spot futures are having an inside trading session today versus yesterday's larger price range. Resistance for the spot futures comes in at 3.485-3.494 and then at the recent high at 3.585. Support lies at 3.293-3.296, which is yesterday's session's low.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC