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- Daily Energy Market Update October 30, 2026
Crude broke above last week’s high overnight trading up over 2% to a high of 104.99. Brent was up over 1.7% overnight. Renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruption are outweighing hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. The market is now on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain.
The main focus overnight has been another attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, which was hit by explosive devices attached by a small boat, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre and Reuters. The incident highlights the continued vulnerability of shipping through the key export route and is keeping a significant geopolitical risk premium in prices.
On the diplomatic front, Qatari mediators have returned to Tehran as efforts to reach an agreement between the US and Iran continue. However, there is still little indication of a near-term breakthrough, with Iranian officials remaining cautious about the prospects for a deal. Markets are also increasingly concerned about the possibility of renewed US military action following the November 3 midterm elections.
Regional security concerns have also widened, with Iran-backed Houthi militants claiming attacks on key Saudi energy infrastructure, including the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries and Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility. A Saudi-led coalition also reported intercepting a cruise missile launched towards the kingdom. Separately, ExxonMobil and Chevron have cancelled plans for executives to attend next week's major oil conference in the UAE, reflecting the heightened security concerns across the region.
For now, the market remains caught between diplomatic efforts and the growing risk of further escalation. Any progress towards a US-Iran agreement could take some of the risk premium out of prices, but continued attacks on shipping and regional energy infrastructure are likely to keep crude supported. With the US midterms approaching and the situation around Hormuz remaining uncertain, volatility looks set to remain elevated in the coming weeks.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude broke above last week's high of 103.92 overnight but has since pulled back. Following four days of consolidation after making a new high last week, the move higher opens the potential for a further extension of the rally, particularly if we see a close above 103.92. A close back below last week's high, however, could signal a false breakout and see prices remain within the consolidation range.
Momentum remains overbought but crossed back higher following yesterday's price action, suggesting upside momentum is beginning to pick up again.
Key Levels
Resistance
104.99 – Overnight high
106.81 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
103.92 – Last week's high
98.84 – Bottom of consolidation channel
97.74 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October low to overnight high)
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating Oil held key support at the 50-day moving average yesterday (4.6298) and the bounce is continuing this morning, with prices now approaching the 20-day moving average. A close back above the 20-day MA would reinforce the view that HO remains in consolidation mode, following the recent pullback.
Momentum is also in neutral territory and moving sideways, while volatility has fallen to a two-week low, suggesting the market is currently lacking a clear directional bias.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.8096 – 20-day moving average
5.0438 – Monday's bearish reversal bar high
5.0760 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
4.6410 – 50-day moving average (today's reading)
4.5433 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.3513 – October low
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
The spread has continued to consolidate this week within the range established by Friday's sharp move higher. All key moving averages continue to trend upwards, while momentum has now crossed back higher in overbought territory, reinforcing the underlying bullish bias.
The key levels to watch remain Friday's high (23.22) and low (18.46), which define the current consolidation range. A break above Friday's high would open the potential for a further move higher, while a break below the low could signal a deeper pullback.
Volatility has also been steadily increasing over the past 10 days, following a new two-month low on October 15th, suggesting it may be ready to break out of the consolidation range.
Key Levels
Resistance
23.22 – Last Friday's high
23.77 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
18.46 – Last Friday's low
16.81 – 20-day moving average
15.68 – 50-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural Gas made new lows for the week yesterday and has extended the move lower again this morning, trading to a low of 2.864. Momentum crossed back lower yesterday, while volatility continues to expand, suggesting downside pressure is building.
With short-term price action now aligned with the broader downtrend, Natural Gas looks set to continue its grind lower. A break below the overnight low of 2.864 would open the way for a test of the Lower Bollinger Band at 2.832.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.092 – Wednesday's bearish reversal bar high
3.165 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October high to overnight low)
3.258 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
2.864 – Overnight low
2.832 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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