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- Daily Energy Market Update October 30,2025
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WTI is down 56 cents at $59.92 December RB is down 2.64 cents at $1.8643 December ULSD is down 2.69 cents at 2.5702
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are lower, although they are trading within the range seen yesterday. Today's selloff is due to supply concerns outweighing the boost seen the past 24 hours from strong DOE data, the Fed lowering rates and news of President Trump offering to lower tariffs on China after his meeting with the Chinese leader.
President Trump agreed to reduce tariffs on China to 47% from 57% in a one-year deal in exchange for Beijing resuming U.S. soybean purchases, keeping rare earths exports flowing and cracking down on the illicit trade of fentanyl. (Reuters)
The DOE stats issued Wednesday were bullish in many ways, despite a large drop in crude inputs to refineries, as net crude imports fell dramatically, while product exports were robust. Crude oil stocks fell by 6.858 MMBBL as net crude oil imports fell by 1.025 MMBPD with exports up and imports down. At 690 MBPD, net crude imports were extremely low. Gasoline supplies fell by 5.941 MMBBL, with demand up on the week by 470 MBPD. Distillate stocks fell by 3.362 MMBBL, even as demand fell by 267 MBPD. Distillate exports rose by 435 MBPD to a very stout figure of 1.507 MMBPD. the fall in crude oil stocks came even as inputs to refineries fell by 511 MBPD to 15.189 MMBPD. The crude inputs to refineries thus fell to the lowest evel seen since the report of January 29.
The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 1/4% --and is also rolling maturing Treasuries back into the market --thus adding some liquidity. The phrase "rolling Treasurys back into the market" signals a shift away from the aggressive reduction of the Fed's balance sheet that occurred during Quantitative Tightening. The Fed's lowering of interest rates was expected, but they signaled that they may not lower rates further this year ,as the government shutdown limits their data availability. (Reuters)
Global oil demand will not peak until 2032, two years later than earlier thought, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a report on Wednesday that blames continued momentum in the use of hydrocarbons for transport and petrochemicals. Rising dependence on fossil fuels due to increased power demand from artificial intelligence and to geopolitical tensions have led to 2050 net zero goals becoming unattainable, Wood Mackenzie said in its Energy Transition Outlook report. Demand for liquid hydrocarbons is expected to peak at 108 million barrels per day in 2032 with natural gas demand remaining resilient well into the 2040s, the report said. (Reuters)
Energy Market Technicals
Technically, the momentum for the RB and crude oils looks poised to turn downward -thus joining the HO that already had negative momentum coming into today.
WTI spot futures have support at 59.64-59.70, which is yesterday's low. Below that support lies at 59.00. Resistance comes in at 61.4561.50 and then at 62.17-62.20.
RB December futures support lies at 1.8453-1.8460 and then at 1.8302-1.8304. Resistance comes in at the overnight high at 1.8910-1.8928 and then at 1.9029-1.9039
December ULSD see support at 2.3388-2.3405 and resistance at 2.4082 and then at the recent high at 2.4400. ULSD had the best reaction yesterday to the Fed's decision to lower interest rates, as the market saw it as a boost for industrial fuels.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas-- NG is up 3.2 cents at 3.847
December NG is up, even as the weather outlook remains mild for this time of year. But, the feedgas demand rose yesterday back to near record level, which is tempering some of the weather bearishness. Today's EIA gas data is seen as "neutral".
Weather models have continued to trend milder for early-to-mid November, pushing forecast accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) back below the 5 year average, as per Celsius Energy data. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Wednesday that forecasts shifted to above-average in the West and Midcontinent for November 3-7, and turned warmer for most of the US for November 8-12. Yet, NGI commentas that "a chilly end to October and forecasts for more cold early next month bolstered natural gas buying in the Midwest and Northeast, boosting cash prices to seasonal highs this week."
Wednesday's feedgas volume for LNG export rose back to 17.15 BCF/d, near to the recent record of 17.3 BCF/d. Wednesday's volume was up 3.9 BCF/d versus last year. Celsius Energy cites the cooler weather along the Gulf Coast for boosting the feedgas volume, as less gas is needed to cool the plants and thus can be used purely for export.
The WSJ survey for the EIA gas storage data due out today is calling for a build of 73 BCF. This is versus last year's build of 79 BCF and the 5 year average build of 67 BCF.
Global LNG demand is set to rebound as new supply entering the market is expected to push prices down and spur interest from price-sensitive buyers, trading executives at the Asia Gas Markets Conference said this week. One executive said that prices of $7-8 are needed to stimulate demand. The JKM Asian NG price settled at $11.215 /MMBtu for December delivery, as per CME data. Markets like China, India and Southeast Asia have the potential to see demand recovery, said the director of trading portfolio optimization at Cheniere, with China and India having the potential to double imports in the next decade. Europe, which lost around 80 billion cubic meters (2.83 TCF) of gas demand since Russia's war in Ukraine, could also see some industrial gas use return as prices fall, as not all of the demand destruction is structural, he added.
Wood Mackenzie update reveals utilities have committed to twice as much new large load demand as generation is expected to be built. U.S. utility large load commitments have reached over 160 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to 22% of 2024 U.S. peak load, according to the analysis. "Utilities expect that annual gigawatt additions will transition from a 23% compound annual growth rate before 2030 to negative 22% thereafter, highlighting the potential for this unprecedented demand surge to be front-loaded." Thus, Woodmac says that without immediate action, "Utilities expect that annual gigawatt additions will transition from a 23% compound annual growth rate before 2030 to negative 22% thereafter, highlighting the potential for this unprecedented demand surge to be front-loaded." (woodmac.com)
The Golden Pass LNG plant is said to be targeting production by the end of this year. The plant in the Sabine Pass near Port Arthur,Texas will have a total capacity of "about" 2 BCF/d, as per their website.
On Wednesday, the December NG came within 4 ticks of filling the downside gap to 3.748. A similar gap in January NG was filled with Wednesday's low of 4.052--filling the prior gap that went down to 4.060. Similar gaps out to June NG were also filled in Wednesday's activity.
The expiring November NG contracts was the only month ahead of May 2026 in positive territory at settlement on Wednesday. It settled up 3.1 cents, while the rest of the winter strip was down between 0.9 cents for March to 5.2 cents for December. This underscores the continued belief of an amply supplied gas market with limited weather demand.
There is a rollover gap down to 3.405 on the NG DC chart from the November expiration. The technical picture is mixed. Momentum has turned positive on the DC chart due to the large bump in prices, as December becomes the spot contract. But, the contract is currently well above the DC chart's upper bollinger band that intersects at 3.720-3.725. Support lies at the gap are at 3.748-3.752 and then at 3.702-3.704. Resistance comes in at 3.894-3.895 and then at 3.947-3.950.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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