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- Daily Energy Market Update October 29, 2026
Crude is a little lower this morning after trading in a relatively tight range overnight. The picture remains much the same as yesterday, with diplomatic hopes taking some of the heat out of prices while continued military activity and shipping risks are preventing a more meaningful sell-off.
Overnight, reports that US Vice President JD Vance had reached out to Iran, alongside Qatar’s latest efforts to broker a deal, have brought the possibility of renewed negotiations back into focus. There is still no clear breakthrough, however, and concerns over possible US military action after the November 3 midterm elections remain in the background.
On the supply side, the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a Houthi missile heading towards Saudi Arabia’s eastern region early Thursday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also claimed that three tankers had struck sea mines and caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker reports remain unverified independently, but underline the continued risk to regional energy infrastructure and shipping.
Yesterday’s US inventory data was mixed. The EIA reported a 1.89 million-barrel draw in crude stocks, against expectations for a small build, while distillate inventories fell by 1.46 million barrels. Gasoline stocks, however, rose by 3.87 million barrels, well above expectations for a draw. The crude and distillate draws were supportive, but the gasoline build and weaker implied gasoline demand temper the overall picture.
For now, the market is waiting for clearer signals on the Iran negotiations. A breakthrough could put further pressure on prices, while any escalation involving Saudi energy infrastructure or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could quickly bring supply concerns back to the forefront.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude is trading modestly lower heading into the US open at 7:00 am, with WTI around 101.48. Overnight price action has been relatively quiet, with the range contained within the previous session’s range.
Looking at the bigger picture, the past four trading sessions have remained within Friday’s large move higher. This could signal consolidation before the next directional move, with Friday’s high at 103.92 the level to watch on the topside and Friday’s low at 98.84 providing support on the downside.
Momentum is also moving sideways, although it remains in overbought territory. For now, crude appears to be waiting for a fresh catalyst, with developments around the proposed US-Iran peace talks likely to be key in determining whether prices break out of the current range or remain contained.
Key Levels
Resistance
103.92 – Friday’s high
105.54 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
98.84 – Friday’s low
97.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
95.61 – 20-day moving average
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil is trading lower overnight, currently at 4.7000 as of 7:30 am, and has moved below yesterday’s low. Yesterday’s session marked the second consecutive daily close below the 20-day moving average at 4.7973, which has acted as a pivot over the past several weeks. This keeps the near-term bias to the downside, with the 50-day moving average at 4.6297 the next significant level to watch. The market has not closed below this average since early July.
Momentum is pointing lower but remains in neutral territory, suggesting there is still room for further downside before heating oil becomes oversold.
The underlying support structure remains intact, with moving averages still trending higher. Until price breaks above the September double-top highs near 5.0499 or breaks and closes below 4.6190, the 50-day moving average, further consolidation remains the base case.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.7973 – 20-day moving average
5.0438 – Monday’s bearish reversal bar high
5.0856 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
4.6297 – 50-day moving average
4.5096 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.3513 – October 6 low
Heating Oil (HOX6)
BrentWTI Dec
Yesterday’s price action followed through on the bullish setup highlighted in the previous update, with the arb rallying approximately 17% by the end of the session. Momentum has moved out of oversold territory and is pointing higher, while price closed back above the 20-day moving average at - 12.51 for the first time in over a week.
Key Levels
Resistance
-11.95 – 50% Fibonacci retracement (October 15 high to yesterday’s low)
-11.30 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
-10.13 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
-12.51 – 20-day moving average (currently trading around this level)
-14.66 – Yesterday’s low
-14.89 – Lower Bollinger Band
BrentWTI Dec
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural gas had a quiet overnight session and is trading close to unchanged heading into the US open at 8:00 am.
Monday’s bounce off the lows failed to move momentum out of oversold territory, and momentum now looks to be turning lower again. Yesterday’s session also printed a bearish reversal candle, although with momentum already oversold, the signal carries less weight than it would if the market were coming from overbought conditions.
For now, the broader downtrend remains intact. A break and close above yesterday’s high would improve the technical picture and could open the door to a more sustained retracement of this month’s sell-off. On the downside, a move back towards Monday’s low would bring the recent lows and lower Bollinger Band into focus.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.207 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October high to Monday’s low)
3.292 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
3.322 – 20-day moving average
Support
2.932 – Monday’s low
2.919 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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