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- Daily Energy Market Update October 28, 2026
Crude is higher in overnight trading but has pulled back from the session highs as renewed Middle East supply concerns compete with hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. Brent reached $116.34 (Dec) while WTI traded as high as $102.24 (Dec).
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, a facility with capacity of approximately 550,000 bpd. Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the strike, leaving uncertainty around any potential impact on operations or supply.
On the diplomatic front, Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war with the U.S. and Israel. The proposal outlines a seven-day process with daily confidence-building steps, and Tehran is expected to respond by the end of the week. However, no agreement has been reached, and President Trump has indicated that further strikes on Iran remain possible.
The conflicting headlines are keeping crude supported but limiting follow-through buying. Further escalation could add to the geopolitical risk premium, while meaningful progress toward an agreement could prompt traders to unwind some of those gains.
API data showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 2.03 million barrels last week, compared with expectations for a 15,000-barrel build. Traders will look to today’s EIA report for confirmation. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to keep December production targets unchanged at its November 1 meeting, while Russian crude exports could decline next month as domestic refiners increase diesel production.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude rallied overnight but has pulled back from it’s high, remaining within Tuesday’s trading range and creating an inside day. The last three days have also stayed within Friday’s strong rally, further highlighting ongoing consolidation.
Momentum has crossed lower but remains overbought, while the bearish divergence that developed at Friday’s high signals fading upside momentum and raises the risk of a deeper correction. Further consolidation or a deeper pullback could allow momentum to normalize before the next directional move develops.
Key Levels
Resistance
103.92 – Friday’s high
104.79 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
97.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 6 low to Friday’s high)
95.03 – 50% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average
92.91 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Yesterday’s session produced the first close below the 20-day moving average in 10 days. Price made a new 11-day low overnight but is trading modestly higher at 4.7874 heading into the U.S. open at 7:15 a.m.
Selling pressure this week has brought momentum back from overbought into neutral territory, easing the overbought condition. While near-term momentum has weakened, the broader price structure remains constructive, with moving averages still trending higher.
The underlying support structure remains intact, with moving averages still trending higher. Until price breaks above the September double-top highs near 5.0499 or breaks and closes below 4.6190, the 50-day moving average, further consolidation remains the base case.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.7949 – 20-day moving average; price is trading just below this level
5.0438 – Monday’s bearish reversal bar high
5.0881 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
4.6190 – 50-day moving average
4.5017 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.3513 – October 6 bullish reversal bar low
Heating Oil (HOX6)
BrentWTI Dec
The ARB made a new low overnight, trading through a key support zone before snapping back and moving higher. The move has formed a bullish engulfing pattern, while the new low has also created a bullish divergence, suggesting downside momentum is weakening.
The combination of bullish technical signals at this key support zone, including Friday’s bullish reversal, and oversold momentum that has just crossed higher increases the likelihood of a recovery bounce. A close below the overnight low would weaken the bullish case and put support back in question.
Key Levels
Resistance
-12.59 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 15 high to overnight low) and 20-day moving average
-11.95 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
-11.30 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
-14.66 – Overnight low
-14.99 – Lower Bollinger Band
BrentWTI Dec
Natural Gas (NGX6)
The bounce off Monday’s low continued overnight, with today marking the second consecutive session of higher highs and higher lows. Momentum has turned higher and is beginning to move out of oversold territory, supporting the recovery.
Natural gas is approaching initial resistance at 2.815, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Beyond that, the 2.900–2.910 area represents the next major resistance zone. This area provided key support, with multiple lows forming there during the move lower, and now coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the October 14 high to Monday’s low.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.815 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement; price is trading just below this level at the time of writing
2.900–2.910 – Previous support zone and 50% Fibonacci retracement
3.012 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average
Support
2.586 – Lower Bollinger Band
2.497 – Monday’s low
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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