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- Daily Energy Market Update October 27, 2026
Crude was relatively quiet overnight, with prices initially falling around 1% before recovering to trade slightly higher on Tuesday morning. The market remains caught between hopes that renewed diplomacy could ease regional tensions and concerns that continued attacks and disrupted shipping will keep supply tight.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, with Iranian state media reporting that the four countries agreed to continue talks on regional peace and security. However, there is no confirmed breakthrough. Meanwhile, the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting missiles and drones targeting the kingdom, highlighting the continued risk of escalation.
Physical supply remains tight. According to ANZ Research, cited by Reuters, Gulf crude exports have declined for a fourth consecutive week, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz running at around 60% of normal levels. This provides an underlying floor for prices even as diplomatic hopes limit further gains.
Looking ahead, Wednesday's EIA inventory report, due at 10:30 a.m. ET, is the next near-term catalyst. Current market expectations are for a 300,000-barrel draw in US commercial crude stocks, compared with last week's 3.06-million-barrel decline. A larger-than-expected draw could reinforce the tight-supply narrative, while a smaller draw or an unexpected build could weigh on prices.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude is having an inside day, trading within Monday’s range, which was itself contained within Friday’s range. Cross-currents from diplomatic talks with Tehran are limiting the upside, while ongoing supply concerns are providing support on the downside. The underlying technical picture remains constructive, with key moving averages continuing to trend higher.
Momentum is overbought and appears to be turning lower. Friday's new high led to a bearish divergence, suggesting that upside momentum is fading and increasing the risk of a near-term pullback or consolidation, although the broader trend remains positive.
Key Levels
Resistance
103.13 — Monday’s high
103.92 — Friday’s high and high for the current move
104.24 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
97.14 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 6 low to Friday’s high)
95.03 — 50% Fibonacci retracement
94.46 — 20-day moving average
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil is trading lower heading into the US open at 7:15 a.m. Yesterday’s session formed a bearish reversal, setting a new high before closing below Friday’s close. The overnight move has since broken below Monday’s low, with prices continuing to trade beneath that level, adding to the near-term downside pressure.
Momentum crossed lower overnight and is moving out of overbought territory, reinforcing the short-term bearish tone.
However, the underlying bullish price structure remains intact, with key moving averages continuing to trend higher despite the recent weakness. A deeper pullback would not necessarily signal a broader trend reversal at this stage.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.0438 - Monday’s bearish reversal bar high
5.0499 - Double top from mid-September
5.0930 - Upper Bollinger Band
Support
4.7943 - 20-day moving average
4.6094 - 50-day moving average
4.4957 - Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOX6)
BrentWTI Dec
The arb has traded in a narrow range overnight and is coming into the US open at 7:45 a.m. marginally higher at -13.79. Friday’s bullish reversal bar low at -14.32 is the key level to watch on a closing basis. The arb has found solid support in this area, holding on multiple attempts to make new lows. As long as prices continue to close above -14.32, the risk remains tilted toward a bounce.
Momentum has turned higher from oversold territory, but has yet to produce a bullish crossover to confirm a potential near-term low.
Key Levels
Resistance
-12.38 - 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average
-11.78 - 50% Fibonacci retracement
-11.17 - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
-14.32 - Friday’s bullish reversal bar low
-15.02 - Lower Bollinger Band
BrentWTI Dec
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Natural gas bounced 6% off yesterday’s low. Despite the rebound, the retracement failed to produce a bullish reversal, with prices closing below Friday’s close and remaining beneath the lower Bollinger Band. Today, however, buying has followed through, pushing prices above yesterday’s high and back inside the bands. A close above the lower Bollinger Band at 2.588 would be an encouraging signal for further retracement, while a close back below it could reopen the door to further downside.
Momentum crossed higher yesterday from deeply oversold territory, which could provide additional support for a more extended retracement.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.815 - 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 13 high to yesterday’s low)
2.913 - Previous support zone and 50% Fibonacci retracement
3.012 - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average
Support
2.588 - Lower Bollinger Band
2.497 - Yesterday’s low
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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