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- Daily Energy Market Update October 26, 2026
Crude is correcting after Friday’s rally, with Brent and WTI both off over 2% . The retreat comes despite another round of reported Houthi attacks, pointing to a partial unwinding of the geopolitical premium as traders weigh diplomatic efforts against the risk of further supply disruption.
The key diplomatic development is Monday’s planned Tehran meeting involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, following Qatar’s mediation visit on Sunday. The talks could provide a channel to contain the conflict, but there is no confirmed breakthrough. Iran has previously conditioned direct negotiations with Washington on its demands being met, so the immediate market impact rests on whether the meetings produce concrete de-escalation measures rather than another round of consultations.
The supply risk remains unresolved. The Houthis claimed on Monday to have attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline pumping stations and Riyadh airport, but Saudi Arabia had not immediately confirmed those specific attacks. The Saudi-led coalition did report intercepting a missile aimed at Riyadh and striking Houthi military infrastructure in Yemen.
The shipping picture offers little evidence of a return to normal. Reuters reports that October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in Hormuz and nearby waterways, based on data compiled by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Continued disruption around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb leaves the market exposed to delays and higher transport costs even without a newly confirmed production outage. The next useful indicators are tanker movements, export schedules and evidence of actual losses in Saudi crude flows.
The broader supply outlook also remains difficult to normalize. IEA chief Fatih Birol said Monday he does not expect energy markets to return to their prewar condition in 2027. Near term, the balance is between diplomatic progress that could remove some risk premium and verified supply disruption that could restore upward pressure. Monday’s decline alone does not establish that the underlying physical market has eased.
Crude (CLZ6)
WTI opened lower overnight and was trading near its overnight low of $100.60 at 7:00 a.m., having retraced roughly half of Friday’s rally. The pullback has yet to reverse the broader technical structure, with key moving averages continuing to trend higher.
Momentum crossed back up on Friday but remains in overbought territory. Friday’s new price high was not confirmed by a corresponding momentum high, creating a bearish divergence that signals weakening upside momentum. The market was technically extended heading into the week, although the fundamental supply risks remain a potential reason for momentum to stay elevated longer than usual.
Key Levels
Resistance
103.54 — Upper Bollinger Band
103.92 — Friday’s high
Support
97.07 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 6 low to Friday’s high)
94.96 — 50% Fibonacci retracement
93.73 — 20-day moving average
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil opened lower overnight but has recovered most of its losses and is trading near unchanged heading into the U.S. open at 7:17 a.m. Price action has turned more consolidative over the past several sessions, with the market holding near the upper end of its recent range. The broader uptrend remains intact, supported by rising key moving averages, which continue to favor buyers on pullbacks.
Momentum has remained overbought for roughly two weeks and has crossed back up, pointing higher. Unlike crude, heating oil has yet to show a clear deterioration in its momentum profile, keeping the technical bias constructive while price holds above key trend support.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.0335 — October 21 high and recent multi-week high
5.0499 — September double top
5.1106 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
4.7350 — October 19 low and low for the week
4.7827 — 20-day moving average; price has not closed below it in two weeks
4.5971 — 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOX6)
BrentWTI Dec
The arb opened lower overnight but remains within Friday’s range, leaving the potential bullish reversal intact for now. Friday’s session printed a new price low but closed higher, while momentum made a higher low despite the fresh price low, creating a bullish divergence. Both signals emerged near support established earlier in October, increasing the potential for a countertrend bounce, although confirmation is still needed.
Friday’s low at -14.32 is the key level to watch. A daily close below it would negate the bullish reversal setup and expose the lower Bollinger Band at -15.05. On the upside, initial resistance sits at -12.38, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the October 15 high to Friday’s low, followed by the 20-day moving average at -12.06 and the 50% retracement at -11.78. A recovery through these levels would strengthen the case for a more sustained rebound.
Key Levels
Resistance
-12.38 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
-12.06 — 20-day moving average
-11.78 — 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
-14.32 — Friday’s low; reversal invalidation on a daily close below
-15.05 — Lower Bollinger Band
BrentWTI Dec
Natural Gas (NGX6)
November natural gas opened lower overnight, extending Friday’s 5%+ selloff to a two-month closing low. Prices remain under pressure as forecasts call for mostly milder-than-normal weather through November 7, reducing near-term heating demand expectations. Despite a narrowing storage surplus and rising LNG feedgas flows, recovering production and forecasts for milder weather through November 7 are keeping near-term demand expectations under pressure. The November contract is technically oversold for a third consecutive day, but the persistent warmth in the forecast is keeping downside pressure in place.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.626 — Lower Bollinger Band
2.792 — Friday’s high
Support
2.500 — Overnight low
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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