Daily Energy Market Update October 24,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil is a bit higher, as the market is still underpinned by the sanctions that the US is set to impose on Russian oil firms.

The U.S. sanctions are targeting Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil as well as nearly three dozen of their subsidiaries. The sanctions have prompted Chinese state oil majors to suspend Russian oil purchases in the short term, trade sources told Reuters. Refiners in India, the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, are set to sharply cut Russian crude imports, industry sources said. China and India together buy around 5 of every 6 barrels of crude oil exported by Russia. China has been importing Russian crude this year at a pace of about $3 billion a month, accounting for about a fifth of its total crude imports, while Russia supplies about a third of India's oil demand.  Indian state refiners mostly buy Russian oil from middlemen instead of directly from Rosneft and Lukoil, providing a possible workaround to U.S. sanctions, according to analysts. However, Reliance Industries, an Indian conglomerate with a big refining business, has a long-term deal to buy crude directly from Rosneft, analysts said.  (WSJ)

Kuwait’s oil minister said that OPEC was ready to offset any shortage in the market by rolling back output cuts. The minister added that he expects a shift in demand to Mideast and Gulf barrels. "We are seeing signs now," he said.  (Reuters)

Russian President Putin derided the sanctions as an unfriendly act, saying they would not significantly affect the Russian economy and talking up Russia's importance to the global market. Putin warned a sharp supply drop would push up prices and be uncomfortable for countries like the United States.   (Reuters)

US CPI data issued today shows a +3.0% increase year on year. This is slightly better than the forecast for a reading of +3.1%, thus giving the Fed a bit of room to possibly lower interest rates.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum is positive for the energies.

WTI spot futures see resistance at 62.87-62.92 and then at 63.80-63.84. Support lies at 61.02-61.06, which is just below the overnight low of 61.21. Below that support comes in at 60.40.

.Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas ---November NG is down 1.8 cents at $3.326
Spot NG futures are lower, weighed down by the bearish EIA storage data seen yesterday and a mixed weather forecast with the East to see cold weather, while the rest of the US is set to see above normal temperatures.

Production remains stout at 108.45 BCF/d versus the 30 day average of 108.3, as per Bloomberg data. The production strength is being offset though by record LNG feed gas volume. Yesterday saw the LNG volume at a record 17.51 BCF/d. Today's LNG volume is 17.23 BCF/d.

The EIA gas storage data seen Thursday disappointed with a build of 87 BCF, which was 6 BCF more than the consensus forecasts. Total storage thus rose to 3.808 TCF, which is +162 BCF/+4.50% versus the 5 year average and +34 BCF/+0.90% versus last year's level.  The next 2 weeks data is seen adding 101 BCF, as per Celsius Energy analysis. The total in storage thus would rise to 3.909 TCF. This would be below last year's total (as of Nov.1) of 3.931 TCF .  

Reuters commentary says that the U.S. and Qatar can supply enough LNG to Europe to offset the Russian gas supply that will be lost when the EU's ban comes into effect in 2027. Energy Aspects believes the US may supply Europe with over 70% of LNG between 2026-2029.

On Thursday, 4,000 of the March April 2026 one month Calendar Spread Option (CSO)  25/50 cent call spreads traded 2.8 cents. Also in the March April 1 month CSO, 6,000 contracts of the -10 cent / -5 cent put spread traded 1.5 cents cost to the -5 cent put buyer. The -5 cent put was an initiating trade, while the -10 cent put position was being closed on the CME, as per open interest data. In the March April 2027 one month calendar spread options, 2,000 contracts of the $2.00 calls traded 19 cents. This was, as one might imagine, a position being initiated as per CME open interest data.

Technically, momentum remains positive for the NG on the DC chart basis, but the market has signaled this week an inability for the spot futures to remain over $3.50. We see resistance below that even at 3.425-3.430. Above that the recent highs of 3.504-3.507 provide resistance. Support at 3.293-3.296 has been pierced today with a low of 3.265. Below that support comes in at 3.210-3.217.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC