- Daily Energy Market Update
- Posts
- Daily Energy Market Update October 23, 2026
Oil climbed Friday, with Brent reaching its highest level in more than five months as escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia heightened concerns over Middle East energy supplies. Brent is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, and WTI is trading just below its recent highs.
The escalation follows Saudi Aramco’s evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters on Thursday as fighting with Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis intensified. A Houthi-claimed attack on a major Saudi airport left casualties, raising concerns about further strikes on energy infrastructure and potential disruption to Saudi exports.
Iranian state television also reported that several oil tankers were damaged by naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a claim that has not been independently confirmed. Saudi Aramco’s CEO said the kingdom has significantly expanded the capacity of its East-West pipeline, which bypasses the strait, though the route may offer only partial relief if disruptions spread.
Shipping costs are adding pressure. Goldman Sachs said global oil freight rates are sharply higher from a year ago, particularly on Middle East routes, and warned that persistently high freight costs, further shipping attacks or infrastructure damage could push its Brent forecast higher. Supply is tightening elsewhere as well, with a pipeline shutdown in Libya cutting output at two oilfields and a cargo of Russian diesel heading to New York, which adds to the distillate picture. The tightness is also showing up in the crude curve, where the Dec26/Dec27 spread has pushed to a new multi-week high.
Natural gas is going the other way. It’s been sliding since the mid-October highs and is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, with momentum still pointing lower.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude is up more than 2% in overnight trading (6:30am), with the high just short of Tuesday’s high at 101.37. Heading into the U.S. open, it’s trading near that high at 101.22. Momentum has crossed back higher, so a break above Tuesday’s high could see crude accelerate toward the upper Bollinger Band at 101.94 and beyond.
Key Levels
Resistance
101.37: Tuesday’s high
101.94: Upper Bollinger Band
Support
97.72: Yesterday’s low
95.50: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
93.69: 50% Fibonacci retracement
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Overnight price action in heating oil was more muted. It traded marginally higher before retracing to near unchanged at 4.9600 (7:30am). Momentum has crossed down in overbought territory, but it has been elevated for the past 10 days, crossing over and back in line with the range-bound price action over the same period. The underlying price structure remains supportive, and pullbacks will likely struggle to move below the upward-sloping 50-day moving average at 4.5770. Price hasn’t closed below the 50 day moving average since early August.
Key Levels
Resistance
5.0335: Wednesday’s high and the multi-week high
5.0499: Double top from mid-September
5.0821: Upper Bollinger Band
Support
4.7582: 20-day moving average
4.7350: This week’s low
4.5770: 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
The spread made a new multi-week high overnight, trading at 20.25. The move also took it above the upper Bollinger Band at 19.89, which will be important to watch on a close. A close above the band could be seen as bullish and open the door for a test of the September 15th high at 23.72.
There was bearish divergence on the new high, with momentum failing to confirm the move (a new price high with a lower momentum high). Without a reversal in price to confirm it, though, this is not a strong signal of a correction. With the broader trend still pointing higher and the key moving averages all upward sloping, any pullback would likely be limited.
Key Levels
Resistance
23.72: September 15th high
Support
15.22: Low for the week
14.96: 20-day moving average
14.47: 50-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Natural gas continued its move lower in overnight trading, falling to 2.669 before bouncing, although the retracement was limited. Today marks the 7th straight day of lower lows and lower highs, a streak that began after the double top on October 13/14 at 3.334.
Today is also the 3rd straight day trading at or below the lower Bollinger Band. With price hugging the band for a third day and momentum still pointing lower, there is still strong selling pressure even on these new lows.
Key Levels
Resistance
2.7480: Lower Bollinger Band (trading just below as of 8:00am)
2.7920: Overnight high
2.900: Former support zone
Support
2.669: Overnight low
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply