Daily Energy Market Update October 23,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

The energies are up strongly today as the U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia's 2 biggest oil companies. "The new U.S. sanctions "mark the most material move to date by the U.S. to shutter the Russian war ATM", as per one oil strategist.

The U.S. has issued sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, who produce 5 MMBPD of oil. ING asks: "The key question is whether these sanctions are enough to deter buyers of Russian oil, specifically China and India." ING points out that prior sanctions against other Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas had little impact on Russian oil exports. Russia called the new U.S. sanctions unproductive and signaled that its conditions for ending its war in Ukraine - terms which Kyiv and many European countries regard as tantamount to surrender - remained unchanged.

Reuters commentary adds :" Moscow's main revenue source comes from taxing output, not exports, which is likely to soften the immediate impact of the sanctions on state finances." Some analysts say that the new sanctions could force Russia to further discount its oil on world markets to offset the perceived risk of U.S. secondary sanctions, but that pain could in turn be mitigated if global oil prices rise supporting the state's finances and the rouble.

Further ratcheting up the tension surrounding Russia, European Union leaders prepared to meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss funding for Ukraine, with momentum building to use frozen Russian assets to provide a 140 billion euro ($163 billion) loan to Kyiv. Moscow said it would deliver a "painful response" if the assets were seized. Additionally, the EU approved a 19th package of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions are on a further 117 vessels, which form part of Russia’s shadow fleet and reportedly two independent Chinese oil refineries, as well as 20 Chinese firms. In addition, the package includes a ban on Russian LNG, which would come into full effect from January 1, 2027.  (Reuters/ING/WSJ)

This morning, China's Commerce Ministry said they oppose the EU's Russia-related sanctions. They also said that they would take measures to safeguard their rights and interests. They added that the EU sanctions against Chinese firms violate consensus between leaders and damage trade relations. (Reuters)

Crude supplies fell by 961 MBBL in the DOE stats seen Wednesday, aided by the increase in refinery crude inputs, recouping some of the large decrease seen in last week's stats. Crude inputs to refineries rose by 600 MBPD, gaining back over half of the fall of 1.167 MMBPD seen in last weeks' stats. But, the refinery run increase was offset by a rise in net crude oil imports of 656 MBPD with crude exports falling and imports rising. In the DOE data issued Wednesday, gasoline demand was basically unchanged for the week, dropping by 1 MBPD to 8.454 MMBPD. This lagged the prior 2 years demand by 410 and 384 MBPD. Distillate demand fell by 386 MBPD on the week to 3.847 MMBPD, lagging the prior 2 years demand by 222 and 284 MBPD.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in August rose to their highest level in six months, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Wednesday. Crude exports increased to 6.407 MMBPD from 5.994 MMBPD in July, marking their highest level since February 2025. The higher export amount was due to Saudi Arabia processing less crude in its refineries and also was due to them producing more crude under their OPEC+ agreement.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum is positive for the energies. As would be expected, given the prospect of a possible loss of a significant amount of oil, the forward curve in crude oil is very strong for the front end today. the December 2025 December 2026 WTI spread is wider by $1.80 at present--trading at +$1.28. 

WTI spot futures see resistance at 62.87-62.92. Support lies at 60.02-60.12. The overnight low is 59.64.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas --November NG is down 3.9 cents at $3.411
NG futures are lower now as the near term weather remains only near normal and that is not seen as enough to sustain a solid rally. Cash prices have fallen back today from yesterday. The fall in prices comes despite the strength in crude prices and European TTF prices, as well as strong LNG feed gas volume. 

Today's LNG feed gas volume is up to a near record at 17.29 BCF/d, which is up from Wednesday's volume of 16.8 BCF/d. And the prospect is for further strength in LNG volumes in the coming weeks with the Golden Pass facility set to begin operations. The record U.S. LNG feedgas volume output per day was 17.3 BCF on April 9, 2025.

Next day cash Henry Hub prices have fallen back 12 cents today. The last trade seen now is at $3.35, down from a price of $3.470 seen yesterday at this hour.

“Near-normal weather is a break from a very mild three-month period, but cold air supply needed for substantially bullish outcomes remains scarce amid a Pacific flow-dominated pattern,” one analyst told Bloomberg in a note.  On Wednesday, forecasts shifted warmer across the U.S. early in the Nov. 1-5 period. This news caused NG futures to retreat, along with the prospect for an above average injection in the EIA storage data.

Profit taking is also cited in Wednesday's pullback in NG futures. This is evidenced by the drop in NG futures open interest on the CME, with notable declines in November, December and January. Also notable in NG futures from Wednesday's activity is the settlement for November being stronger than the rest of the winter strip. November was down 2.4 cents versus settlement, while the rest of the December through March strip was down between 2.8 and 4.9 cents. The November strength we see as being due to a few factors, among them the strength in next day cash, while the ample amount of gas in storage and prospect for just average weather makes the forward months not as desirable. The next day cash discount versus the spot futures differential narrowed Wednesday to 1.5 cents. This is versus the prior 2 sessions' differentials of minus 15 to 20 cents.

The EIA storage data due out today is seen as a build of 81 to 82 BCF as per news wire surveys. That compares to last year's build of 79 BCF and the 5 year average build of 77 BCF.

Technically momentum remains positive for the NG, basis the DC chart,  with resistance seen at the high at 3.585 from

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