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- Daily Energy Market Update October 22,2025
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WTI is up $1.20 at $58.44 December RB is up 3.04 cents at $1.8022 December ULSD is 3.23 cents at $2.2172
Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview
Energies are higher on trade talk optimism as news has surfaced of India possibly reducing their purchases of Russian oil. Also boosting prices is the cancellation of the proposed summit between Presidents Trump & Putin. Additionally, a surprise draw in crude stocks in the API data from last night is supportive.
Reports suggested the U.S. and India are close to finalizing a trade deal that could see India gradually cut imports of Russian crude, potentially lifting demand for other grades. President Trump appeared to signal that India would curb rather than halt Russian oil purchases. India's Mint newspaper reported on Wednesday that the two countries were nearing a long-stalled trade agreement that would reduce U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 15-16% from 50%. (Reuters/Market News)
Additional trade optimism is rising as investors are also closely watching the progress of U.S.-China trade talks as officials from both countries are set to meet this week in Malaysia. Trump said on Monday he expected to work out a fair trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom he was due to meet in South Korea next week. (Reuters)
A planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin was put on indefinite hold on Tuesday, as Moscow rejected calls for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump had said last week that he would meet Putin in Hungary in the coming weeks. But the U.S. President told reporters on Tuesday that meeting Putin would be a waste of time. Russia has kept up its demands that Ukraine cede some of its territory as part of a ceasefire. But Kyiv has largely rejected said demands, and has also rejected suggestions from U.S. officials that it surrender territory for a ceasefire. (investing.com)
API Forecast Actual
Crude Oil +0.8/+2.1 -2.98
Gasoline -0.6/-1.9 -0.236
Distillate -1.3/-2.9 -0.974
Cushing n/av n/av
Runs -0.4/+0.7% n/av
The European Union's 19th package of sanctions against Russia will list four companies in involved China's oil industry that circumvent western restrictions, EU diplomatic sources said on Wednesday. The sources said the package lists two Chinese oil refineries, a Chinese trading firm and an entity involved in circumvention. (Reuters)
On Tuesday, energies rallied midday as the U.S. Department of Energy announced that they planned to buy 1 MMBBL of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Bids for the SPR solicitation close on October 28. (Reuters)
Energy Market Technicals
Momentum is positive for the energies.
WTI spot futures see resistance above at 59.42-59.50 and then at 60.26-60.29. Support comes in at 56.99-57.03 and then at 56.35-56.39.
ULSD has a stepladder up pattern on the December daily chart since making the low a few days ago. Support is seen at 2.1853-2.1859, which is above the overnight low of 2.1830. Below that, support is seen at 2.1496-2.1502.
December RB sees support at 1.7747-1.7750 and then at 1.7525-1.7550. Resistance comes in at the double top of last week at 1.8088-1.8093 and then at 1.8323-1.8343.
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas--- November NG is up 2.5 cents at $3.499
Natural gas is up slightly, having risen overnight to its best value in 3 weeks, as weather forecasts have added further demand. The near-term temperature outlook continued to trend colder on Tuesday. Short covering also seems to have driven the recent rally.
With its late Tuesday evening run, the European weather model is now forecasting 14-day accumulated Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) to be above the 5-year average for the first time this month. The National Weather Service's model remains below-average, but has also been trending higher. (Celsius Energy)
Bloomberg data has U.S. domestic natural gas production today at 107.1 BCF/d, compared to the 30-day average of 108.26 BCF/d.
Tuesday's settlement took the 3 day gains in spot futures up to 18.24%, making it the largest three day percentage gain since Wednesday, May 1, 2024, as per WSJ data.
CME NG futures open interest from Tuesday's activity fell by a total of 24,242 contracts with decreases seen in the November through February strip. We see this as being a function of some short covering.
The overnight high for the spot futures of 3.572 almost tested the resistance at the high seen earlier this month at 3.585. Above that resistance is seen at 3.628-3.629. Support comes in at 3.355-3.357 and then at 3.293-3.296. Momentum remains positive and not overbought as yet.
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Disclaimer
This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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