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- Daily Energy Market Update October 21, 2026
Crude oil prices rose Wednesday as renewed concerns over Middle East supply security and limited progress toward resolving the Iran conflict supported buying. The rebound followed the previous session’s pullback, when tentative signs of diplomatic progress encouraged profit-taking.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with reports of continued attacks on regional shipping and renewed threats to energy infrastructure adding to concerns over potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, preliminary API data released Tuesday showed declines in U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories, providing additional support. Traders will look to Wednesday’s EIA report for confirmation of the inventory trends.
Natural gas continued to trade lower as forecasts for warmer-than-normal temperatures through early November weighed on heating demand expectations. Although production has eased from recent highs and LNG feedgas flows have strengthened, projected demand remains below the five-year average, leaving the near-term domestic supply-demand balance relatively comfortable.
The key question for crude is whether escalating geopolitical risks translate into measurable supply disruptions. For natural gas, the focus remains on whether weather forecasts shift colder enough to improve demand expectations ahead of the winter heating season.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude bounced overnight following yesterday’s selloff, trading at $99.98 at 7:00 a.m. ET, up from yesterday’s close of $98.18. The rebound points to continued dip-buying, with the slope of the key moving averages steepening as the broader uptrend accelerates.
Momentum remains elevated but has weakened, with yesterday’s selloff triggering a bearish crossover. Watch how the divergence between price and momentum plays out. If crude continues higher, momentum will need to turn back up to support the move. Otherwise, the market could be vulnerable to a period of consolidation or a deeper pullback.
Key Levels
87.99 50 Day moving average
81.48 100 Day moving average
76.08 200 Day moving average
Resistance
100.04 – Upper Bollinger Band
101.37 – Yesterday’s high
Support
95.25 – Yesterday’s low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the October low to yesterday’s high
93.69 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
91.87 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil traded in a narrow range overnight and was marginally lower heading into the U.S. open, at 7:30 a.m. ET. The broader uptrend remains intact, with the 50-day moving average above the 100-day, and the 100-day above the 200-day. All three averages are steepening, pointing to strengthening trend momentum.
The upper Bollinger Band has capped the advance for the past three sessions. Momentum is overbought but continues to point higher, suggesting buying pressure remains in place.
Key moving averages
50-day: 4.5417
100-day: 3.9856
200-day: 3.3858
Resistance
5.0335 – Overnight high
5.0499 – September 15–16 double top
5.0518 – Upper Bollinger Band
Support
4.7350 – Friday’s bullish reversal bar low
4.7285 – 20-day moving average
4.5419 – 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
The spread is marginally lower this morning, trading at 17.25 at 7:50 a.m. ET, compared with yesterday’s close of 17.38. Price remains contained within the previous two sessions’ ranges. After trading above the upper Bollinger Band for three consecutive sessions, the spread has moved back below it, suggesting the recent push higher is losing momentum.
Momentum has crossed lower from overbought territory and continues to point down. With price back below the upper band and momentum weakening, the spread could see further consolidation or a move lower as momentum normalizes toward neutral.
Key Levels
Resistance
18.66 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (September 15 high to October 6 low)
18.91 – Upper Bollinger Band
19.69 – Yesterday’s high
Support
15.22 – Yesterday’s low
14.69 – 20-day moving average
14.03 – 50-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ26Z27)
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Natural gas broke through key support at 2.900 this morning, trading as low as 2.831 as of 8:30 a.m. Momentum continues to point lower and is not yet oversold. Price is also trading decisively below all its key moving averages:
50-day moving average: 3.064
100-day moving average: 3.154
200-day moving average: 3.440
The key level to watch from here is the former support at 2.900 on a closing basis. A close below this level would open the door for further downside and continued selling pressure. However, if natural gas can recover and close back above 2.900, this morning's selloff may prove to be a capitulation flush, suggesting that the latest wave of selling could be nearing exhaustion.
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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