Daily Energy Market Update October 16,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energy prices are higher as President Trump said Wednesday that India had pledged to stop buying Russian oil. Russian oil accounts for 1/3 of India's imports. The Indian government today in comments made no reference to President Trump's statement. India said today that its two main goals were to ensure stable energy prices and secure supply. (Reuters) Distillate prices are the strongest overnight befitting the strong draw in distillate stocks seen in the API data last night

Some Indian refiners are preparing to cut Russian oil imports, with expectations of a gradual reduction, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Refiners have not been formally told by the government to stop buying Russian oil, as per Reuters sources. U.S. negotiators have said curbing its Russian crude purchases would be crucial to reducing India's tariff rate and sealing a trade deal. Russia accounted for 36% of India's oil imports in the six months through September, or some 1.75 MMBPD, trade data showed. Imports are set to rise in October to 1.9 MMBPD, Kpler data showed, as Russia ramped up exports after Ukrainian drones hit its refineries.(Reuters) President Trump is now seen applying pressure to China for it to stop importing Russian oil.

API                  Forecast        Actual
Crude Oil      -1.1/+1.75     +7.36
Gasoline       -0.64/-1.07     +2.9
Distillate      -0.941/-1.8     -4.79
Cushing            n/av           -0.978
Runs             -0.9/+0.2%       n/av

The DOE stats will be issued today at Noon (EDT).

The November WTI options expire today. The $55 put option open interest is 18,529 contracts on the CME, as of Wednesday's close. The $60 put strike has more open interest with 22,631 contracts. The $60 call strike has 11,683 contracts open.

The UK on Wednesday announced 90 new sanctions on Russia, including measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, four oil terminals in China, 44 tankers in the ‘shadow fleet’, Nayara Energy and the Beihai LNG terminal. (Market News)

Middle East to Asia VLCC freight rates surged to a two-week high on Monday and are expected to stay elevated due to the US-China port fees and concern for US sanction on China’s Rizhao port, Reuters sources said.

Continuing the pattern seen since the beginning of the month, the retail gasoline price at the pump has fallen again today. The price of $3.057, as per AAA data, is the lowest seen since December 31. One month ago, the price was $3.186.

Energy Market Technicals

Technically momentum remains negative for the energies basis the December daily charts, although the momentum is waning to the downside. 

December WTI futures are having a 2nd straight inside trading day versus the prior day's price range. Support is likely at Tuesday's low of 57.29. Resistance comes in at 59.69.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas---November NG is unchanged at $3.016
NG spot futures are unchanged now after trying to rally overnight, with strong feedgas volume trying to offset the weak weather demand that has weighed on prices the past week or so. Comments seen suggest that market participants were less than eager to sell aggressively below $3 in the spot futures--even as technically momentum remains negative.

LNG feedgas volume rose on Wednesday to 17.20 BCF/d, which was within 0.05 BCF/d of the record, as per Celsius Energy data. The feed gas volume strength offset the weak weather demand that has weighed on the market of late.

Weather demand being weak is highlighted by the following forecast from Atmospheric G2 : "most of the US for October 20-24 will be above normal, as "there are still no signs of any noteworthy cold air intrusions and no appreciable cold air over Canada. Also, temperatures in the interior of North America are expected to remain warmer-than-normal for October 25-29."

The EIA natural gas storage data due out today is seen as a build of 78 to 81 BCF, as per the WSJ & Reuters surveys. This compares to last year's build of 77 BCF and the 5 year average build of 83 BCF.

We failed to mention yesterday that size traded in the December/January  -25/-20 cent call spread on Tuesday. 3,000 contracts traded at a cost of 1.1 cents to the buyer of the nearer call strike of -25 cents. These were positions that were initiated. The December January futures one month spread settled Tuesday at -33.3 cents.  Also initiated on Tuesday were positions in the December $3.00 and $2.50 puts. They traded in a 1 by 2 ratio. The $3.00 put was bought against selling of 2 of the $2.50 puts for a cost of 3.3 cents. 

In Wednesday's NG/LN options trading, a lot of March April 1 month calendar spread put options traded. The -10 cent put was purchased 6,000 times for 1.7 cents with the reference price for the underlying futures spread at the time being +8.0 cents. The March April +10 cent /flat/-10 cent put butterfly traded 4.8 cents cost to the buyer of the wings. And in February LN options, 3,500 lots of a Feb $4.00/$5.50 call spread traded with additional sales of the $3.40 put. The call spread buyer collected 1.4 cents in the options trade with .61 delta Feb futures sold at $3.79 to round out the trade. Additionally, the February/March one month CSO saw the $1.00 call sold with the 25 cent put bought at a cost of 5.9 cents. The November $3.00 put open interest on the CME fell by 9,475 contracts with Wednesday's activity. The $3.00 put was purchased at a price of 14.7 cents with .50 delta futures buys at $2.98 in one sequence. In another one, the $3.00 put was bought at 13.6 cents with .48 delta futures bought at $3.00.

NG futures open interest rose by 29,771 contracts in Wednesday's trading. The December through March contracts saw sizable increases, which given the pattern of selling seen during the 9 AM to 2:30 PM time, leads us to believe that the open interest is of mostly new short positions in that strip.

Technically, NG spot futures still have negative momentum. Wednesday's settlement in the spot futures was the 5th decline seen in the past 6 sessions. Yet, several comments we saw yesterday suggested that there may have been support below $3--as one trader said : "nobody's getting married to a position on the short side at sub-$3."  The support we had at 2.960-2.964 held with the low of 2.964 seen in Wednesday's trading. The gap to 2.944 thus remains unfilled. Below that support lies at 2.911-2.916. Some resistance in NG spot futures is seen at the overnight high at 3.062-3.065. Resistance to the upside above that lies at 3.130-3.138. 

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Liquidity’s Daily Energy Market Updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Ethanol Update 

Natural Gas Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC