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- Daily Energy Market Update October 15, 2026
Crude traded lower overnight but recovered most of its losses (CL1 95.15 6:45am) as the market weighed the prospect of easing Russian oil-transport restrictions against ongoing geopolitical risks. Prices remain under pressure following reports that the U.S. is considering allowing some previously sanctioned tankers to transport legally traded oil.
The potential easing of restrictions follows a temporary relaxation of U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel. Improved shipping flexibility and the prospect of additional product flows are weighing on prices, although the impact will depend on the extent of any policy changes.
Geopolitical risks continue to limit the downside, with renewed attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz keeping concerns over regional oil flows elevated. Further escalation could disrupt shipments and provide renewed support to crude.
Ukraine has also resumed strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, adding uncertainty to refined-product supply. Potential refinery disruptions remain a supportive factor, particularly for middle distillates.
U.S. inventory data provided a mixed signal, with a larger-than-expected draw in crude stocks and lower distillate inventories offset by an increase in gasoline stocks. The market is awaiting official government data to confirm the latest supply trends.
The prospect of easing Russian oil-transport restrictions is weighing on prices, while geopolitical tensions and tighter crude inventories are limiting the downside. Attention remains on official U.S. inventory data and further developments around Russian sanctions and Middle East shipping security.
Crude (CL1)
After three consecutive days of higher highs and higher lows, crude has stalled its move higher overnight. Following an initial selloff below yesterday’s low, prices have recovered some, but not all, of the losses and are trading close to unchanged heading into the U.S. open.
Volatility has fallen to multi-month lows, as measured by Bollinger Band width, suggesting crude is entering a period of consolidation following its recent rally.
Momentum has moved into overbought territory, which may also be contributing to the loss of upside momentum. After the recent advance, the market could struggle to extend gains without a fresh catalyst.
Key Levels
Resistance
96.81 — 50% Fibonacci retracement (September 15 high to last week’s low)
97.86 — Upper Bollinger Band
99.15 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
92.54 — 20-day moving average
90.35 — 50-day moving average
87.21 — Lower Bollinger Band
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil sold off overnight and is trading at 4.7998 heading into the U.S. open, extending the pullback that began yesterday after prices formed a double top and printed a reversal bar.
Momentum remains elevated in overbought territory but has yet to cross lower, leaving scope for further consolidation. The key focus is whether prices can hold Fibonacci support levels as the pullback develops.
The broader trend remains supportive, with the 50-day moving average above the 100-day and the 100-day above the 200-day. This bullish alignment suggests the current move is a correction within a broader uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal.
Resistance
4.9450 — Upper Bollinger Band
4.9844 — Double top at Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s highs
5.0499 — Mid-September double top
Support
4.7426 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (last week’s low to this week’s high)
4.6678 — 50% Fibonacci retracement
4.5931 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Monday’s low
Heating Oil (HOX6)
BrentWTI Dec
The arb traded higher overnight, reaching a high of -9.78 before giving back some of its gains. It is trading at -10.65 heading into the U.S. open, around the 20-day moving average. The move marks a third consecutive session of higher highs and higher lows, with the overnight high breaking above the first key Fibonacci retracement at -10.29.
Momentum has started to recover from oversold territory, suggesting there may be further room to the upside before momentum returns to neutral.
Key Levels
Resistance
-9.10 — 50% Fibonacci retracement (July high to Monday’s low)
-8.27 — 50-day moving average
-7.91 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
-11.45 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Monday’s low to overnight high)
-11.97 — 50% Fibonacci retracement
-12.49 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
BRENTWTI Dec
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Natural gas opened lower overnight but recovered its losses and is trading slightly higher at 3.298 (8:00 am) heading into the U.S. open. Price action remains confined to a narrow range within the previous two sessions, but today marks the first session in seven days that prices have held clearly above the 100-day moving average. Over the prior six sessions, prices repeatedly traded around the 3.172 pivot.
Momentum is moving into overbought territory but continues to point higher, suggesting the recovery may have further room to run. The key test is the double top at 3.334 from earlier this week. A break above this level would open the way for a move toward the 200-day moving average at 3.458, which has not been tested in several months.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.334 — Double top from this week
3.374 — Upper Bollinger Band
3.458 — 200-day moving average
Support
3.172 — 100-day moving average
3.146 — 20-day moving average
3.067 — 50-day moving average
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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