Daily Energy Market Update October 15,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Crude oil prices are up, with the watchword today being "steady",  but the market remains concerned about the US/China trade tension and "glut fears" from the IEA having raised their supply surplus forecast in their monthly report yesterday. Some support for the energies may have come from Fed Chairman Powell signaling a possible interest rate cut, with the US dollar easing on the news. A risk on sentiment is said to have been revived.

The trade dispute between the U.S. and China has reignited over the last week, with both countries imposing additional port fees on ships carrying cargo between them. That will raise trading costs and disrupt freight flows, likely lowering economic output, as per Reuters reporting. China’s Commerce ministry said on Tuesday that the US was “threatening to intimidate” with the prospect of new tariffs on Chinese exports, “which is not the right way to get along with China”. Its spokesperson said that China would “fight to the end” in trade talks. (Guardian)

Although Fed Chairman Powell  did not provide specific guidance on a path lower, his comments about weakness in the labor market indicated that easing is firmly on the table, as financial markets expect. Other Fed officials have said recently that the falling labor market is taking precedence in their thinking, leading to the likelihood of additional rate cuts ahead.  (CNBC) The US dollar has weakened on the news from Fed Chair Powell. Markets are currently priced for a quarter-point cut at the October 28-29 Fed gathering and another at the following meeting in December, followed by three more cuts next year, according to LSEG data. “Risk sentiment improved throughout Tuesday – boosted by strong U.S. bank earnings – before Powell’s speech added dovish-sounding headlines: slower payrolls, tolerable inflation, and a possible QT rollback,” analysts at ING said, in a note.

Weak inflation data from China added to oil’s woes overnight amid signs of continued economic weakness, as per Investing.com reporting. The CPI data from China for September issued overnight shows a drop of 0.3%. That was worse than the forecast for a rate of -0.2%, but was an improvement from last month's decline of 0.4%.

The gasoline average retail price at the pump in the U.S. has fallen to its lowest level sine January 13. Today's price, as per the AAA, is $3.067.

The API data will be issued this evening and the DOE oil data will be released tomorrow (Thursday) at noon.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum remains negative for the energies. RB and the crude oils though are having inside trading days today versus yesterday. We have switched to December for the product technical analysis as they are now the highest traded volume contract months.

Spot WTI futures see support at 57.68-57.74 and then at 57.03. Resistance lies at 60.17-60.26.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 5.0 cents at $2.978
NG continues to fall, today testing $3.00.  A "muted weather outlook" remains the culprit for the slide.

On Tuesday, the Commodity Weather Group reported that above-normal temperatures are expected across most of the eastern half of the US for October 19-23.

The EIA storage data due out tomorrow, at its normal hour, is seen as a build of 86 BCF, as per NGI's model. That compares to last year's build of 77 BCF and the 5 year average build of 83 BCF.  NGI says that the larger than normal injection is due the Lower 48 natural gas burn for power generation having been down 7.8% for the week, thanks to the resumption of more normal temperatures from the late gasp of summer. A nearly 30% week/week increase in wind generation contributed as well, and it more than made up for a 5% decline in solar output for the week.

The weakness in NG futures has come even as production in October has fallen.  LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states stood at 106.5 BCF/d so far in October, down from 107.4 BCF/d in September and a record monthly high of 108.3 BCF/d in August.

Technically, momentum remains negative as the DC chart shows a stepladder down pattern over the past week. Support at 2.960-2.964 has been tested this morning with a low of 2.964. The DC gap down to 2.944 lies just below that. Below that support is seen at 2.911-2.916. Some resistance is seen at 3.061-3.062 with better resistance lying at 3.106-3.107.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC