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- Daily Energy Market Update October 14, 2026
Crude is trading higher overnight, making higher highs for the fourth consecutive session. Geopolitical concerns continue to support prices, offsetting some of the pressure from expectations of additional Russian fuel supplies.
The prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies remains a potential headwind. Trump has announced a temporary easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian fuel exports, but Russia’s strained refining capacity could limit how quickly additional volumes reach the market. The impact on crude is less direct, but increased diesel supply could ease some pressure on refined product markets.
Geopolitical risks remain in focus following recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and incidents involving shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. Any further escalation could threaten regional oil flows and provide additional support to crude.
The proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire also remains uncertain. Zelenskyy has said Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have continued, raising doubts about whether the proposal will lead to a meaningful reduction in supply risks.
For now, crude continues to push higher, with traders watching for further developments in the Middle East and signs of whether additional Russian diesel supplies will reach the market.
Crude (CL1)
Crude is trading higher overnight and near its highs at 95.36 as of 7:00 a.m. Today marks the fourth consecutive session of higher highs. Yesterday, crude closed above initial resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 94.46, marking the first close above this level in over two weeks.
Momentum is moving closer to overbought but continues to point higher, confirming the strength behind the move. A further close above 94.46 would strengthen the case that this level is turning into support and increase the likelihood of a continued move towards the next resistance levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
96.81 — 50% Fibonacci retracement (September 15 high to last week's low)
99.15 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and upper Bollinger Band
106.75 — September 15 high
Support
94.46 — Pivot/former resistance
92.85 — 20-day moving average
89.96 — 50-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil is trading slightly lower overnight at 4.9412 as of 7:00 a.m., but is holding on to most of yesterday’s gains. Yesterday, price tested the upper Bollinger Band at 4.9659, reaching a high of 4.9844 before closing back below resistance. The overnight range has been relatively small compared with recent volatility.
Momentum is moving toward overbought territory, and with price approaching resistance, further upside may be limited in the near term. A pullback or period of consolidation would allow momentum to normalize before the next directional move.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.9534 — Upper Bollinger Band (price trading just below this level at 7:15 a.m.; below yesterday’s band level)
4.9844 — Double top (yesterday’s high and overnight high)
5.0499 — Double top from mid-September
Support
4.7426 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (last week’s low to today’s high)
4.6898 — 20-day moving average
4.5931 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Monday’s low
Heating Oil (HOX6)
BrentWTI Dec
The ARB has bounced sharply over the past two sessions, as anticipated in yesterday’s update. Momentum was deeply oversold and beginning to turn higher, suggesting a bounce was possible after the recent selloff. Support at -13.91 has also remained important, holding on a closing basis in five of the previous seven sessions.
The focus now shifts to whether the recovery can continue toward resistance at -10.87, followed by the 20-day moving average at -10.49. Momentum’s recovery should help gauge the strength of the bounce, while a failure to hold above support would put the recent lows back in focus.
Key Levels
Resistance
-10.87 — Last week’s high
-10.49 — 20-day moving average
-10.29 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (early July high to the recent low)
Support
-13.91 — Multiple bottoms and key closing support
-14.16 — Recent low
-15.19 — Lower Bollinger Band
BrentWTI Dec
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Natural gas printed a two-week high and its highest close in two weeks yesterday, but the strong rally stalled at key resistance at the upper Bollinger Band (3.332), with prices closing just below it.
Overnight, natural gas retested yesterday’s high, reaching 3.330 before giving back some of the previous session’s gains. Prices are trading around 3.250 ahead of the US open at 7:50 am.
Momentum continues to point higher and is not yet in overbought territory, leaving room for another move to the upside. The key level to watch on any pullback is the 100-day moving average at 3.172. If this support holds, the market could make another attempt to break above the double-top resistance at 3.330.
However, a close back below the 100-day moving average would raise the risk of another failed breakout, potentially shifting attention towards lower support levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.330 Double-top resistance (yesterday’s and overnight highs)
3.348 Upper Bollinger Band
3.462 200-day moving average
Support
3.172 100-day moving average
3.130 20-day moving average
3.092 Monday’s low
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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