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- Daily Energy Market Update October 13, 2026
Crude has backed off overnight following Monday’s rally, but the pullback has been relatively contained as the market continues to weigh potential supply relief against ongoing geopolitical risks. The market is giving back some of its recent gains without a clear shift in the broader supply-risk picture.
The main source of pressure remains the prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies. Trump has announced a temporary easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian fuel exports, but questions remain over how quickly the promised volumes can reach the market given Russia's strained refining capacity. The announcement has weighed on sentiment, although the impact on crude is less direct than on diesel.
Geopolitical risks continue to limit the downside. The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about further disruption to regional oil flows. These risks have not disappeared simply because crude has pulled back from Monday's highs.
The proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire also remains uncertain. Zelenskyy has said Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have continued, undermining the prospect of a sustained reduction in energy-related supply risks. That leaves the market cautious about treating the announcement as meaningful de-escalation.
For now, the move looks more like a modest retracement following Monday's rally than a decisive shift in direction. Traders will be watching for evidence that Russian diesel supplies are materializing, any further escalation around Saudi Arabia and Hormuz, and whether crude extends beyond the overnight range.
Crude (CL1)
Crude is trading modestly lower overnight at 91.94, down from yesterday’s close of 93.16. With no major new headlines driving the move, price action remains focused on the technical picture. Yesterday, crude stalled at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement before closing back below the 20-day moving average at 93.03.
Price continues to trade within a range defined by the 20-day moving average on the topside at 93.03 and the 50-day moving average below at 89.49. Crude has remained between these two moving averages for more than three weeks, with neither bulls nor bears establishing a sustained breakout. Momentum has moved into neutral territory but continues to point higher, suggesting some underlying improvement despite the latest pullback.
Key Levels
Resistance
93.03 — 20-day moving average
94.46 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (September 15 high to last week’s low)
96.81 — 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
89.49 — 50-day moving average
88.50 — Key support zone on a closing basis
85.53 — 100-day moving average and lower Bollinger Band
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil is trading higher overnight but remains within yesterday’s range. Price has seen wide trading ranges over the past two weeks but continues to gravitate back toward the 20-day moving average. The underlying structure remains bullish, with the 50-day moving average above the 100-day and the 100-day above the 200-day, highlighting the strength of the broader trend.
Momentum crossed lower overnight, but the signal is less significant given that it occurred within the neutral zone. The focus remains on whether heating oil can break above yesterday’s range or continues to consolidate around the 20-day moving average.
Key Levels
Resistance
• 4.9126 — Last week’s high (highest high in over two weeks)
• 4.9256 — Upper Bollinger Band
• 5.0499 — Double top (September 15/16)
Support
• 4.6811 — 20-day moving average
• 4.4368 — Lower Bollinger Band
• 4.3961 — 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOX6)
BrentWTI Dec
The ARB is trading mostly unchanged overnight at -13.75 as of 7:30 a.m. The overnight range has been narrow and remains contained within yesterday’s range.
The bullish divergence flagged last week has dissipated, with momentum now having caught up with the selloff and making new lows alongside price yesterday. This confirms the recent downside momentum, although momentum is now deeply oversold and appears to be turning higher, suggesting an increased risk of a near-term bounce.
Yesterday’s low at -14.16 is the immediate downside reference, while -13.91 remains a key level to watch. This level has held on a closing basis in five of the past seven trading sessions, making it an important area for potential support.
Key Levels
Resistance
-10.87 — Last week’s high
-10.37 — 20-day moving average
-10.29 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (early July high to yesterday’s low)
Support
-13.91 — Multiple bottoms; key closing support
-14.16 — Yesterday’s low
-15.27 — Lower Bollinger Band
BrentWTI Dec
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Natural gas is trading lower overnight but remains within an inside day, highlighting the lack of directional bias.
Price has remained contained below both the 100-day moving average at 3.172 and the 20-day moving average at 3.108, with support holding over the past six sessions. Watch for sustained closes above/below these moving averages. Momentum is currently in neutral territory and moving sideways, also confirming the lack of direction.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.172 — 100-day moving average
3.300 — Last week’s reversal bar high and upper Bollinger Band
3.395 — September 24 high
Support
3.108 — 20-day moving average
3.049 — 50-day moving average
2.912 — Support and multiple bottoms
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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