Daily Energy Market Update October 13,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are higher supported by a softening of President Trump's stance toward China. Additionally the rally today may be supported by technical factors.

OPEC, in their monthly report, issued today, kept their 2025 and 2026 global oil demand forecasts unchanged. In 2025 demand is seen rising 1.3 MMBPD and in 2026 it is seen rising by 1.38 MMBPD. Non-OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2025 has also been left unchanged at +0.810 MMBPD, as has the 2026 forecast at +0.630 MMBPD. OPEC writes in their report that "the front-end of the forward curve of oil futures remained in backwardation, although persistent selling pressure and subdued sentiment weighed on front-month values. This suggests that, despite speculative activity in the futures market, near-term physical crude fundamentals remained broadly supportive of the market. " OPEC added, with regard to the global economy, that some uncertainties exist. "Beyond trade and geopolitical issues, concerns about high debt levels in key economies and US debt yields, call for close monitoring in the near term." OPEC also cites the risks due to lingering uncertainty surrounding trade policy. (opec.org) Based on the OPEC report, expected demand for OPEC+ crude averages 43.1 MMBPD, suggesting the world market will see a deficit of only 50 MBPD if the wider group maintains September’s production level. (Investing.com)  Russian oil production rose in September to 9.321 MMBPD, up 148 MBPD from August, OPEC monthly data showed on Monday. This was still below Russia's OPEC+ output quota for September of 9.415 MMBPD, however. (Reuters)

Overnight oil prices rose as President Trump softened his rhetoric on China after Friday tweeting his anger at China. He suggested Friday that the US may have to impose "massive" tariffs on China. On Friday, Trump had suggested that his upcoming meeting with Chinese leader XI had no reason to be held. (Truth Social) But, on Sunday, President Trump said  “The United States does not seek to harm China but to help it,” adding, “Do not worry about China. Everything will be fine.” (the Chosun.com) U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer said on Sunday that a meeting could still happen in South Korea on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. (Reuters)

China's crude oil imports rose 3.9% in September from a year earlier as refineries operated at their highest utilisation rates this year. September's imports were 11.5 MMBPD, down from August's rate of 11.66 MMBPD. China's seaborne crude oil imports fell in September on the month to their lowest since January, with shipments from Iran hitting the lowest since January, according to Kpler's data. Kpler analysis added :" "The month-on-month decline mainly reflected tight import quotas for independent refineries, which curbed purchases of Russian and Iranian barrels." For the first nine months of the year, total crude imports were up 2.6% at 423 million tons (11.36 MMBPD) , reflecting China’s continued stockpiling activity. China's refinery utilization rate in September was 73.45%. This was up 1.28 percentage points from August and 3.22 percentage points from a year earlier, analysis from Oilchem said.  (Reuters)

The Baker Hughes issued Friday showed the oil rig count fell by 4 units. In the Permian Basin in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, the biggest U.S. oil-producing shale formation, the rig count fell by one this week to 250, the lowest since September 2021. In Texas, meanwhile, the rig count dropped by six this week to 238, also the lowest since September 2021. (Reuters)

WTI futures open interest on the CME rose by a large amount in Friday's trading. It rose by 52,547 contracts. Given price action, we see this as mostly new short positions in the November through March strip.

The retail average gasoline price at the pump in the U.S. fell today to its lowest price since March 18th. Today's average, as per AAA data, is $3.082. One month ago it was $3.179 and one year ago it was $3.201. The retail price for diesel fuel fell to its lowest since June 20th. The average price today is $3.653. One month ago it was $3.698 and one year ago it was $3.606.  

Energy Market Technicals

WTI's weekly continuation chart momentum is trying to turn positive. The RB weekly chart's momentum is also trying to turn positive from a near oversold condition. But, DC chart based momentum for WTI and RB remain negative. ULSD's DC chart momentum is positive. The energies are having inside trading days today versus Friday's price range.

On Friday WTI spot futures hit a 5 month spot contract low and tested the DC chart's lower bollinger band. That band lies today at $58.17. Support for the spot futures is seen at 58.42-58.49 and then at 57.60. Resistance comes in at 60.57-60.64 and then at 61.61-61.64.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 2.8 cents at $3.078
NG futures are lower as near term weather demand remains weak --even as LNG feed gas volume for export is at a record level.

NatGasWeather writes that weekend weather trends remained mostly bearish as some demand was lost. They add that most of the long-range weather forecasts favor warmer than normal temperatures regaining ground over 2/3 of the U.S. in the 8 to 15 day period.

Celsius Energy data showed that as per Sunday's early-cycle pipeline data, flows to the Cove Point export facility will have returned from maintenance on schedule. This will drive total LNG feedgas demand to 17.4 BCF/d, which is a new record high & is up 3.7 BCF/d vs 2024. Expect flows to exceed 18 BCF/d for the first time over the next 4-6 weeks, if not sooner, Celsius commentary adds.

The Baker Hughes gas rig count rose by 2 units. The Waha/Permian gas price has been in negative territory for several days in a row now, having recently reached a record low. NGI’s Waha daily price on Thursday (Oct. 9) averaged negative $1.200/MMBtu. This makes it the 21st trading day in a row with Waha averaging below zero. Prior to this record, the longest stretch of negative Waha prices was the 28 trading days between July 26 and Sept. 11, 2024, according to NGI’s Daily Historical Data. The negative pricing in recent weeks, including a record low of negative $8.790 on Oct. 2, highlights the impact that the Permian Basin’s high associated gas production has on prices when maintenance occurs on the existing pipeline system, as per NGI commentary. We ask :" Will this lead to further drops in the Permian rig count and hence gas production?"

Notably seen in Friday's options activity was the $2.75/$2.50 put spread in November done in a 1 by 2 ratio for a cost of 1.7 cents with delta November futures bought at $3.14. Also, seen was an initiating position in the September/October one month minus 10 cent call of which 2,500 contracts were bought at 2.5 cents; the underlying September/October 2026 spread settled below that at minus 21.5 cents. In the January February one month call spread, the 50 cent/75 cents/$1.00 call butterfly was bought at a cost of 0.9 cents. The January February spread settled Friday at 19.2 cents. Additionally, in the January February one month CSO, the 25 cent 75 cent call spread traded for a cost of 5.0 cents. Open interest in the Jan/Feb 25 cent and 75 cent calls declined in CME data.

Comments heard regarding natural gas sentiment include: " Weather is mild so it’s up to production now. "  "While LNG exports are at record highs, investor focus will turn increasingly to the near-term temperature outlook as heating demand should be ramping up. However, mild conditions are expected to dominate into at least the final week of October with forecast daily Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) consistently below-avg. While natural gas should be due for a bounce, this warmth could continue to apply downside pressure."

NG spot futures are at their lowest since the October contract expiration almost 3 weeks ago. The spot futures are into the gap created then which goes down to 2.944. Momentum remains negative basis the DC chart. Support at 3.021-3.023 was almost tested with today's low being 3.029. Below that support is seen at 2.960-2.964. Resistance lies at the overnight high at 3.130-3.138 and then at 3.165-3.

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Disclaimer

This article and its contents are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC