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- Daily Energy Market Update October 12, 2026
Crude reversed earlier losses and moved higher as renewed attacks across the Middle East kept supply risks in focus, outweighing pressure from expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies and a possible Russia-Ukraine energy truce. WTI and Brent recovered as the latest developments around Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz reinforced the geopolitical risk premium in the market.
The Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh's airport that killed 13 people and injured more than 300, followed by another attack on Sunday that killed one person. Two commercial tankers were also reported attacked, one near Oman and another while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The incidents have renewed concerns about the security of regional shipping and the risk of further disruption to Middle East oil exports.
Potential supply relief from Russia is tempering the outlook. President Trump announced that Russia would provide additional diesel supplies to international markets and separately announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. However, Zelensky subsequently accused Russia of violating the ceasefire, while Russia had not commented. The additional diesel could ease refined-product tightness, although its actual impact will depend on deliveries and the availability of Russian refining capacity.
Supply developments in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the demand outlook are also worth watching. Shell, Chevron and BP are working to restore offshore production following Hurricane Isaias, while OPEC has lowered its 2026 oil-demand growth forecast.
With renewed geopolitical risks supporting prices while potential product-supply relief and weaker demand expectations provide an offset, crude remains headline-driven. Traders will be watching developments around the Strait of Hormuz, further attacks on Saudi Arabia or energy infrastructure, the status of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, and the pace of Gulf of Mexico production restarts.
Crude (CLX6)
Crude initially traded lower overnight before reversing and recovering all of its losses. The bullish reversal engulfed Friday’s price action, with WTI trading at 92.76 as of 7:00 a.m. ET, above Friday’s high. The 20-day moving average has capped price action over the past 10 trading sessions, but crude broke above the 92.61 level early this morning and is holding on to most of its gains.
Momentum is moving closer to neutral but continues to point higher, suggesting there may be room for the recovery to continue. Holding above the 20-day moving average would be an encouraging sign for bulls, while a move back below it could signal that the breakout is losing steam.
Key Levels
Resistance
• 94.28 — 50% Fibonacci retracement (September 15 high to October 6 low)
• 96.02 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
• 98.54 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
• 92.61 — 20-day moving average (currently trading just above)
• 89.61 — Overnight low
• 86.86 — Last week’s low
Crude (CLX6)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating oil recovered its early losses after trading down to an overnight low of 4.5821, below both Thursday and Friday’s lows. It has since reversed higher and is trading marginally higher on the day at 4.7007 as of 7:10 a.m. ET, heading into the U.S. open.
Momentum is pointing higher but approaching overbought territory, suggesting the recovery could face some consolidation in the near term. Heating oil is trading around its 20-day moving average, making this a key level to watch for confirmation of further upside.
Key Levels
Resistance
• 4.6944 — 20-day moving average (currently trading just above)
• 4.9126 — Thursday’s high
• 4.9752 — Upper Bollinger Band
Support
• 4.5657 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (last Tuesday’s low to Thursday’s high)
• 4.4141 — Lower Bollinger Band
• 4.3744 — 50-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread sold off overnight before recovering all of its losses and moving above Friday’s high, trading at 14.39 compared with Friday’s close of 13.55. Overnight price action has engulfed Friday’s range, with the spread showing signs of building upside momentum.
Momentum remains near oversold territory but has crossed higher and is pointing up, suggesting there is room for the move to continue before momentum normalizes toward neutral. The focus is on whether the spread can sustain its recovery and move toward the 20-day moving average.
Key Levels
Resistance
15.23 — 20-day moving average
15.54 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (September 15 high to last Tuesday’s low)
17.10 — 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
12.20 — Overnight low
12.58 — 50-day moving average
10.48 — Last week’s low
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Natural gas opened lower and is trading near its overnight low at 3.129 as of 8:00 a.m. ET. After closing back above the 100-day moving average last Wednesday, prices have been trading back and forth around this key level.
Momentum is sitting near neutral, but this morning’s selloff has caused the Stochastic to cross back lower for the first time since the beginning of the month. The 100-day moving average at 3.175 will be a key level to watch on a closing basis, with a close below it potentially signaling renewed downside pressure.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.175 — 100-day moving average
3.298 — Upper Bollinger Band and last week’s high
3.395 — September high
Support
3.102 — 20-day moving average
3.046 — 50-day moving average
2.912 — Support zone / multiple lows
Natural Gas (NGX6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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