Daily Energy Market Update October 10,2025

Liquidity’s Daily Market Overview

Energies are lower as the signing of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is seen reducing the risk premium for crude prices. One comment seen adds that "Concerns over high supply and sluggish demand also remained in play."

Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement on Thursday in the first phase of President Trump's to end the war in Gaza. The hope is that the ceasefire deal will see less attacks on shipping in the Gulf region, allowing for easier transport of fuel through the Suez Canal and through the Red Sea out of Saudi Arabia. (Reuters) One analyst wrote: "We believe the sharp increase in oil-in-transit will show up in onshore oil inventories over the next months, and underpin downward pressure on oil prices."

Bigger losses in oil were curtailed by the U.S. imposing more sanctions against Iran on Thursday, which point to tighter supplies in the coming months. The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals over links to Iran’s oil industry. Targeted entities include China’s Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group, which the U.S. said is an independent “teapot” refinery that has purchased vast amounts of Iranian crude. Several tankers and oil terminal operators were also targeted. (investing.com)

Reuters analysis says that the DOE data this week shows Gulf Coast crude stocks have risen by 15 MMBBL since June 20 compared with a ten-year average seasonal depletion of 13 MMBBL. As a result, stocks are 10 MMBBL (+4%) above the seasonal average up from a deficit of 18 MMBBL (-7% ) fifteen weeks ago. Gulf Coast refineries and tank farms are the most closely connected with the global seaborne crude market, and rising inventories are a sign of a sustained surplus, Reuters commentary adds.

Russia has been gradually raising its oil production and was close last month to meeting the output quota agreed by the OPEC+ group of leading oil producers, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported. Novak was cited as saying that there was no need to further restrict diesel exports and that domestic oil refineries had increased fuel production.  According to OPEC, Russian oil production increased in August to 9.173 MMBPD, up 50 MBPD from July. Russia's OPEC+ production quota stood at 9.415 MMBPD in September. No production data from Russia for September has been available.  (Reuters)

The latest data from Insights Global show that refined product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region increased for the week ending 9 October 2025.  The increase was largely driven by gasoil and naphtha inventories rising, while gasoline supplies fell. ING commentary adds that "European gasoline demand in some key markets has been fairly robust for much of this year, contributing to lower stocks."

President Trump tweeted Thursday praising the decline in oil prices. He added that gasoline prices would fall below $2 in the near future. (Bloomberg)

The retail gasoline average price in the U.S., as per AAA data, has fallen further today to $3.100. One week ago the price was $3.152 and one month ago it was $3.193. Today's price is the lowest seen since March 18th.

Energy Market Technicals

Momentum remains positive for the energies basis the DC charts, though it looks to be heading towards neutral with the selloff seen the past few days.

WTI spot futures support at the recent low at 60.40 is being tested. Below that support lies at 59.74. Resistance comes in at 62.11-62.12 and then at the double top of Wednesday/Thursday at 62.87-62.92.

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural Gas--NG is down 9.3 cents at $3.176
NG prices are lower again today as the greater than forecast EIA gas storage number seen yesterday and seasonally weak weather demand still weigh.

The EIA gas storage number released Thursday showed a build of 80 BCF. This was 3 to 5 BCF more than news wire surveys forecast. Greater wind generation was cited by one analyst as being the cause for the larger build. Total storage rose to 3.641 TCF. This is +23 BCF/+0.64% versus last year's level and +157 BCF/+4.51 % versus the 5 year average for the period. Celsius Energy has the next 4 weeks storage reports adding a further 269 BCF, thus taking inventories for EOS to 3.910 TCF. The EIA this week in their STEO forecast end of October EOS storage to reach 3.978 TCF.

Mid-October weather trended milder in Thursday's forecast. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Wednesday that forecasts shifted cooler for the eastern two-thirds of the US for October 13-17, but temperatures trended warmer in the southern and eastern US for October 18-22.

ANZ analysts noted that “European prices have eased as strong LNG inflows and mild early-October temperatures reduce urgency in winter procurement.” ANZ adds that the imminent startup of the Golden Pass LNG export facility in the U.S. has weighed on TTF prices as this "heralds a wave of supply that threatens to push the market into surplus next year."  (investing.com) With North Asian demand subdued—Japan’s inventories are at 92% of capacity—cargo competition remains muted between Asia and Europe, thus keeping global LNG spot prices below $10.50/MMBtu. Today's TTF price of 31.890 Euro/Mwh equates to $10.81/MMBtu. There is still a gap below on the TTF DC chart down to Euro 31.715.

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