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- Daily Energy Market Update October 1, 2026
Crude prices rallied overnight following reports that Chinese refiners suspended fuel-product exports, while stalled U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks and sharply reduced global inventories continued to support the market.
Reports that Chinese refiners suspended October exports of oil products added to concerns over an already constrained global fuel market. The move is expected to further tighten fuel supplies as Beijing looks to preserve domestic inventories.
Upward pressure was also supported by continued uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations. Stalled peace talks have contributed to higher oil prices, while ongoing uncertainty around Middle Eastern supply continues to keep attention focused on geopolitical risk.
Compounding these concerns are significant declines in global oil inventories. With inventories and available buffers reduced, the market remains sensitive to additional supply disruptions.
Crude (CL1)
Crude initially sold off overnight into the key support level in the 88.60–88.70 area, which has held on multiple tests over the past month. News flow then provided additional support for the technically bullish structure.
The broader technical picture remains constructive, with the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages positively stacked. Momentum remains deeply oversold, but has yet to cross higher. We’re watching to see whether momentum reverses while support holds, or price breaks lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
95.84 — 20-day moving average
96.78 — Last week’s high
97.73 — 50% Fibonacci (September 15 high to overnight low)
Support
88.60 — Multiple bottoms/support
88.50 — 50-day moving average
86.50–86.90 — 50% Fibonacci and 100-day moving average
Crude (CL1)
Heating Oil (HOX6)
Heating Oil is lower in overnight trading, coming in at 4.6262 as of 7:15 a.m. Price is trading within an inside day, with activity on both sides of the 20-day moving average.
The broader technical picture remains supportive, with the key moving averages positively stacked: the 50-day is above the 100-day, and the 100-day is above the 200-day.
Momentum also supports the bullish technical picture, having crossed higher out of oversold territory.
Resistance
4.7119 — 50% Fibonacci (September 15 high to yesterday’s low)
4.7917 — 61.8% Fibonacci
4.9615 — Last week’s high
Support
4.5161 — Yesterday’s low
4.3740 — Double bottom
4.3424 — Lower Bollinger Band
Heating Oil (HOX26)
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
The spread is trading higher overnight after posting a bullish reversal yesterday, making a new low for the move before closing above the previous day’s close. Overnight, price initially dipped back into support at the 50-day moving average, which also held as support yesterday.
The key moving averages remain positively stacked, with the 50-day above the 100-day and the 100-day above the 200-day, reinforcing the constructive technical backdrop. Momentum has also crossed higher from oversold territory.
Resistance
16.28 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 15 high to overnight low)
16.95 — 20-day moving average
17.70 — 50% Fibonacci
Support
11.80 — 50-day moving average
10.85 — Lower Bollinger Band
8.85 — 100-day moving average
Crude Spread (CLZ6/CLZ7)
Natural Gas Market Overview
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Natural Gas sold off overnight and is coming into the U.S. open at 2.970 as of 7:40 a.m. Yesterday marked the second consecutive daily close below the 20- and 50-day moving averages. While price remains below these averages, Natural Gas is susceptible to a test of the lower support zone, where double-bottom support comes in around 2.900.
Momentum is approaching oversold territory but continues to point lower, suggesting there is still room for price to test the lower end of the range before a potential recovery bounce develops.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.036 — 50-day moving average
3.061 — 20-day moving average
3.200 — 100-day moving average
Support
2.976 — Overnight low
2.948 — Last week’s low 2.948
2.902 — Double bottom
Natural Gas (NGX26)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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