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- Daily Energy Market Update November 9, 2026
Crude prices are lower this morning as markets weigh the latest developments in US-Iran tensions against continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The US reportedly carried out limited strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island overnight, according to Iranian state media. An Iranian provincial official said the strikes caused no damage to critical infrastructure. The reports add another layer of uncertainty as diplomatic efforts continue.
Qatar is mediating discussions between the US and Iran. Tehran has reportedly proposed ending its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions and halting further bombing. The proposal would defer nuclear negotiations, and the US has rejected it. Qatar's prime minister is expected to meet with President Trump on Monday.
Shipping risks remain elevated. The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on an Aramco building in Riyadh, although Saudi authorities have not publicly attributed responsibility. Tanker attacks in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have also continued at an elevated rate, according to international maritime agency figures cited by Reuters.
The bearish outlook is also supported by improving physical supply. JPMorgan estimates the global oil market was oversupplied by 1.1 million bpd in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October. The estimates reflect recovering Middle Eastern exports, rising non-OPEC production and weaker demand. These figures were reported last week and are not new weekend developments.
Separately, a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Kirishi refinery reportedly caused a fire overnight. The incident is a secondary development, with potential implications for Russian refined-product supply.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude is lower in overnight trading heading into the US open, trading around 88.40 as of 7:00 AM ET, versus Friday's close at 90.34. After hitting a low of 87.54, prices have bounced and are now trading back above support at the lower Bollinger Band. The key level to watch is Thursday's low at 86.65. Thursday's session posted a bullish reversal, making a new low before rallying to close higher and back inside the Bollinger Bands.
Momentum is starting to turn higher from oversold territory.
Key Levels
Resistance
92.40 – 50-day moving average
93.66 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October high to Thursday's low)
95.82 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
87.73 – Lower Bollinger Band (briefly traded below overnight)
86.65 – Thursday's low
83.87 – 100-day moving average
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Heating oil is also lower overnight but has bounced off support at the lower Bollinger Band (4.2434).
Thursday's session posted a bullish reversal, and the low will be important to watch on a closing basis. As long as support holds, there's potential for a bounce. A close below 4.1398 (Thursday's low) would open the door for a test of the 100-day moving average at 4.0061.
Momentum remains oversold but has crossed higher, supporting the potential for a bounce.
Key Levels
Resistance
4.4143 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October high to Thursday's low)
4.5191 – 50-day moving average
4.5840 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Support
4.2434 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.1398 – Thursday's low
4.0061 – 100-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
BrentWTI Jan
The ARB traded higher overnight and is trading near its high (-7.81) heading into the US open (7:45 AM ET). Price action is trading above the 50-day moving average (-8.89) and below the upper Bollinger Band. While holding above the 50-day moving average is supportive of potentially further strength, gains may be limited by resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, with both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages just above it. Further headwinds could come from momentum, which is overbought and has crossed lower.
Key Levels
Resistance
-7.60 – Upper Bollinger Band
-7.08 – 100-day moving average
-6.42 – 200-day moving average
Support
-8.89 – 50-day moving average
-9.81 – 20-day moving average
-11.40 – Double bottom (October 30/November 2)
BrentWTI Jan
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural gas traded higher overnight, and a close above 3.003 today would mark the fifth consecutive higher close. Momentum is moving toward neutral and continues to point higher. However, natural gas has confluence resistance at 3.144, where the 20-day moving average lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 14 high to October 30 low).
The 50-, 100- and 200-day (3.332/3.538/3.955) moving averages are still trending lower, which will likely provide headwinds to the rally extending.
Key Levels
Resistance
3.144 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 20-day moving average
3.241 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
3.338 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50-day moving average
Support
2.920 – Friday's low and double bottom
2.830 – Low for the move (October 30)
2.671 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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