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- Daily Energy Market Update November 6, 2026
Crude is trading relatively unchanged early Friday following Thursday's recovery, as the market attempts to stabilize after this week's sharp selloff. The broader market backdrop has become more bearish as the US midterm election results have raised expectations that political pressure on President Trump could make further escalation of the conflict with Iran more difficult. Growing optimism surrounding a potential diplomatic agreement has increased the possibility of disrupted Middle Eastern crude supplies eventually returning to the market, adding to concerns about an emerging global surplus.
Despite the broader shift in sentiment, tanker attacks across the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz this week remain a source of supply uncertainty and may help limit further downside in crude prices. Reuters reported that at least five vessels had experienced incidents since Sunday, November 1, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations, with additional incidents reported on Thursday, November 5. Separately, Saudi authorities issued a potential-danger warning in Yanbu, an important Red Sea oil export hub, although the nature of the threat was not specified and the alert was subsequently lifted. Meanwhile, the latest EIA report showed draws across all three major US inventory categories, with crude stocks declining by 865,000 barrels, gasoline by 222,000 barrels and distillates by 3.565 million barrels in the week ending October 30. This marked the fifth consecutive weekly decline in US crude inventories, while distillate stocks fell to their lowest level since May 2003 and were approximately 13% below their five-year average.
Crude recovered some of Wednesday's losses yesterday, with Brent and WTI holding onto Thursday’s gains. However, both benchmarks remain on track for substantial weekly declines, with Brent facing its steepest weekly percentage drop since 2020. The market is now balancing the potential for a diplomatic resolution and increased regional oil exports against continued shipping disruptions and uncertainty surrounding the reliability of supply flows.
Crude (CLZ6)
Crude is holding onto most of Thursday's gains heading into the US open, trading around 90.87 as of 7:00 AM ET. Thursday's session made a new low for the move before rallying to close back inside the Bollinger Bands. Crude tested the 50-day moving average at 92.25 overnight after closing below it on Wednesday. The 50-day is the key near-term pivot on a closing basis. A close above it could open the door for further upside toward the 20-day moving average at 97.22. Failure to close over back over the 50-day could lead to a retest of Thursday's low at 86.65, followed by the 100-day moving average at 83.71.
Momentum is turning higher but has not yet crossed up out of oversold territory.
Key Levels
Resistance:
92.25 – 50-day moving average
93.66 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 30 high to Thursday's low)
95.82 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
97.22 – 20-day moving average
Support:
88.63 – Lower Bollinger Band
86.65 – Thursday's low
Crude (CLZ6)
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
Heating oil is trading marginally higher at 4.3781 heading into the US open (7:15 AM ET). Thursday's session posted a bullish reversal, making a new low before closing higher and back inside the Bollinger Bands after closing below the lower band on Wednesday. This could open the door for a further near-term correction toward the 50-day moving average at 4.5129, followed by the 20-day moving average at 4.6105. Thursday's low will likely act as a key pivot on a closing basis, with a close below it opening the door for a test of the 100-day moving average at 3.9935.
Momentum remains oversold but has yet to turn higher alongside the recovery from Thursday's low.
Key Levels
Resistance:
4.4143 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 26 high to Thursday's low)
4.5129 – 50-day moving average
4.6105 – 20-day moving average
Support:
4.2947 – Lower Bollinger Band
4.1398 – Thursday's low
3.9935 – 100-day moving average
Heating Oil (HOZ6)
BrentWTI Jan
The ARB had a bearish reversal on Thursday after closing above the upper Bollinger Band on Wednesday. Wednesday's close was also the first close above the 50-day moving average (-8.86) in several weeks. Thursday's reversal erased what appeared to be the start of a bullish breakout. Overnight price action has remained mostly capped by the 50-day moving average.
The key moving averages have been trending lower for several weeks and should continue to act as resistance on rallies given the broader bearish backdrop. Momentum also crossed lower following Thursday's sell-off.
Key Levels
Resistance:
-8.86 – 50-day moving average (trading just below as of 7:40 AM ET)
-7.88 – Upper Bollinger Band
-7.06 – 100-day moving average
Support:
-9.99 – 20-day moving average
-11.86 – October 28 bullish reversal bar low
-12.10 – Lower Bollinger Band
BrentWTI Jan
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Natural gas traded higher overnight, posting its third consecutive higher low following Wednesday's double bottom. The first key level to watch is 3.144, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with the 20-day moving average just above at 3.162. A break above these levels could open the door for a move toward the 50% Fibonacci at 3.241.
The broader bearish backdrop remains in place, with the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages stacked and trending lower:
20-day: 3.162
50-day: 3.340
100-day: 3.547
200-day: 3.962
Momentum crossed higher earlier this week and has moved out of oversold territory.
Key Levels
Resistance:
3.144 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 14 high to October 30 low)
3.162 – 20-day moving average
3.241 – 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support:
2.830 – October 30 low
2.665 – Lower Bollinger Band
Natural Gas (NGZ6)
Mark Schaefer — LinkedIn
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